The Land of Contradictions -2

In my blog of December 29th, I made the point that making laws was not enough , they needed to be enforced.

“It’s not enough to change the law. We also need cops on the beat to enforce the law" President Obama 

( New York Times January 24th,2013).

Now if only our senior  politicians ,bureaucrats and police were to send out the same message  !!!!

Coming Together at Phuket !!!

In December my wife and I attended a Indian wedding hosted in Phuket , Thailand. The Indian  bride groom attended  a  Hong Kong International school. and then went to a Ivy League college. He works for a top private equity firm. The bride is an American who works as a analyst for a large American bank. While the wedding was lavishly hosted, with every thing being well thought and taken care of, what fascinated me most was the mix of young people and their ability/willingness to participate and enjoy the functions without any hesitation or awkwardness. What particularly brought them together was the music. Every evening  there was a party which lasted till the early hours of the morning.

The young guests were a mixture of Indian,Pakistanis, Americans,Chinese,Koreans, Japanese and numerous other nationalities. Most of the girls were dressed in saris and many of the boys in kurta  pyjamas. They all appeared well at ease with their attire. The evenings started off with top well known singers from Bollywood which were then followed by djs.The singers all sang Bollywood numbers and Punjabi bhangra  - all of them with a pounding beat. The dance floor was packed solid with people dancing Bhangra. Surprisingly the Asians , who normally tend to be more self conscious, had no problem at all adapting to the " Bhale Bhale " of the bhangra with the shrugging shoulder movements and the adaptation of both fore fingers in the air ala John Travolata in Saturday Night Fever ,with legs kicking and pounding  Cossack style and circles being formed in the manner of the Jewish " Hava Nagela " . Of course no party  these days would be complete with a Gangam style, including a version of Gangam " Punjabi  " style - the Punjabi's should certainly teach  the Gangam residents a thing or two about extravagance ! The stars of the show one evening were two Korean pre-teen brothers  who outdid the bhangra boys with their vigorous version of Gangam style horse riding performance.

The djs played a mix of Bollywood item numbers and rave and other club music about which I know very little, but  people on the floor were doing the combination of bhangra, gangam style or whatever went with the beat. It was incredible seeing the mixed group and the fusion  of music and dance  with a common objective of having a good time. It was a pleasure to see the intermingling of the young ( and older people like me) and their willingness to adapt and adopt the different cultures.

They all attended  the Sikh wedding ceremony sitting cross legged on the floor and the vegetarian food afterwards, as if they did this every day. 

I have thought about it further to understand what was it which pulled this diverse group together and come to the conclusion that it  was America. Yes of course an international city such as Hong Kong  played a role , but it was the American thread which pulled it all together. The people all were from America, or had studied in America or worked for American firms.While this might be stretching it and  sound like  the words of an Americanophile ( which to some extent I am ), I cannot think of any country including the United Kingdom which impacts the people and universalizes them as America does. Being a nation of immigrants it absorbs all cultures and " Americanizes " them,  to the extent there is something common to which they can all  relate to , while still retaining their own culture.

I have worked for a large American international banking institution and a large British international banking institution ( for a much shorter time). I left the American institution almost twelve years ago , but there is a common bond  among the the former employees  which enables you to  link up and you get talking about individuals or events which might have happened decades ago. This is certainly not the case with the British institution. I have friends who have worked with European ,or Asian  institutions,companies where the camaraderie is even less or non-existent. As a non-French or non-German, or a non-Japanese , you are in different category. There are institutions which are changing - Standard Chartered is probably one of the most prominent and was one of the first to have Indian Chief Executive, but then Standard Chartered is now more of a  international institution which just happens to have its head office in London.

 If only the world could always come together and work towards  a common goal of living happily, and not worry about race or religion, it would  truly be a wonderful place.

The Land Of Contradictions

The recent gang-rape, and physical assault on a young woman who eventually succumbed to her injuries,  has brought about an overwhelming response of fury from people from all walks of life through out the country. How can this happen in a country where some of the most powerful political figures are women, much more than most countries in the world  ? 

To list some of them,  Sonia Gandhi , the head of the ruling Indian National Congress Party , Meira Kumar is  the Speaker of  the Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj a prominent leader of the Bharitya Janata Pary,  is the leader of the Opposition. Sushma Patil was the former President of India, Jayalalitha the Chief Minister of Tamil Naidu and the head of  All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party . Mamta Banerjee is the Chief Minister of W.Bengal and the head of the Trinamool Congress Party. Mayawati the head of the Bahujan Samajwati Party was the former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in the country. Sheila Dixit is the Chief Minister of the capital Delhi.

 Also during the wedding season you read about the big fat Indian weddings where the bride's father ( businessmen , politician ) spends the equivalent of millions of dollars for his daughter's wedding to entertain thousands of people . The entertainers include top Bollywood or overseas performers who do not come cheap.  

You then have the contradiction of women being treated as chattel, where there is a rape committed in the country every few minutes. Delhi is not just the capital; it has the inglorious distinction of being classified the rape capital of the country According to the New York Times dated December 30th,2012, there were 600 rape cases reported in 2012 with one conviction. The National Crime Bureau statistics show  there were 228650  incidents  against women ,reported which averages almost 628 incidents ( which include crime such as  rape, molestation sexual harassment etc. ) a day,all over India. These do not include those which do not get reported ,including family incidents.

To make matters worse,  almost every day some unthinking politician makes a comment (including some the women politicians) as to how the rape victims brought it upon themselves , how they should dress soberly , how they should not go out at night “  dented & painted “ whatever that means. According to the social activists the problem arises, because it is a patriarchal society where women are treated as mere play things to be used and abused by the males.

However I would like to focus on the fact that almost all  of the rape victims tend to be from the poor or lower castes in the  rural areas or if in the cities from the  working class or the lower or middle middle class. You do not hear about such incidents among the wealthy or the senior bureaucrats. The reason for this is  because the wealthy do not use the public transportation in the evening , nor they do not live in areas which are not well lit, which exposes them  to the lecherous individuals. Also when these affected people go to the authorities to report them ,they are ignored or  not taken seriously , as happened recently with a young seventeen year girl in Punjab and who eventually committed suicide out of shame. 

Yes we do have to change the mind set of the men, but that is long term  solution. What can be done faster is  to amend the laws, but they in themselves will not make  much  of a difference. India has no shortage of laws, the problem is in the enforcement.We have to make the public transportation safe so that young people, particularly women  can travel without fear no matter how late it is. We need to ensure that when they go to the authorities, their complaints are registered, and action is taken immediately . The government needs to allocate more funds to the judiciary to enable them  to beef up the court system so that these cases can be fast tracked. They need to be able to hire better prosecutors, to ensure that they have a higher conviction record.These are relatively quick fixes, if the political will and determination is there.

It is only when laws are implemented without fear or favor,when people are made to pay for their crimes by serving long prison sentences, will we see the changes. Only then will there be one India - not one for the wealthy and well connected and one for everyone else.

Myanmar - Ready For Take Off !!!

Our family returned last week from a six day trip to Myanmar. For once we all agreed that it was one of the best holidays we have had. We went to Yangon, Bagan and Inle Lake. Based on what I have been reading , my observations and the conversations  ( albeit limited) I had  during our trip, I  feel that the country is ready to take off. If I was younger, I would have no hesitation in relocating to Yangon to start afresh.

First let me come clean on my Myanmar (or Burma) connection. My father moved there right after the war and started a business, getting the distribution franchise for international electronic, air- conditioners/refrigerating companies from Japan, India, Europe, UK and the United States. He did very well. While I was born in India, I was taken to Yangon while still a few months old. I spent a happy childhood  flying kites, playing marbles, shooting at birds with catapults. My friends were Indian, Chinese and Burmese. I went to a school run by lay American Methodist missionaries, which required us to attend chapel twice a week. We used to sing gospel and other American folk songs. Elvis Presley, Ricky Nelson and Cliff Richard were all the rage, as were drain pipes and puff hair dos with T-shirts  rolled up a'la Marlon Brando in the Water Front and James Dean. The Beatles were just getting popular. Surprisingly (now that I think about it) , the newspapers carried a lot of international news and one read about the anti colonial movements in Algeria, the murder of Patrice Lumumba in the Congo, and of course the assassination of President Kennedy.   

After the war Burma was one of the most prosperous countries in Asia. The first air-conditioned airport in Asia was in Rangoon in the sixties. I was told by a journalist friend that prior to the war, Burma was the most profitable branch for Mitsui worldwide. However in 1962, General Ne Win took over and announced that Burma was to go down the path of "The Burmese Road To Socialism ". In early 1964, the government announced that it was going to nationalize all private business regardless of who owned it. My father lost all his assets in that country. We moved back to India in the second quarter of that year.

After finishing my studies I ended up in Hong Kong working for Citibank. In nineteen eighty- one, soon after I joined the investment bank, a German colleague and I decided to visit Yangon to make a pitch for a sovereign loan, which was the hot product during those days. Upon our arrival, it seemed that we had gone back in time. While the rest of Asia was going through radical changes, in Burma time had stood still. Nothing had changed in the seventeen years since I had left. In fact things had deteriorated. I had no problem finding our old house and our neighbors. The Burmese central bankers came to pick us up in a pick up and we sat on the wooden benches in the back to go out for dinner. The hotel we stayed in The Inya Lake Hotel built by the Russians was in a terrible condition. There were cockroaches and an occasional rat. I caught an eye infection from the dirty towel in the bathroom. 

This time round however things were different. The airport was modern. The immigration officers were all well groomed, professional and efficient. All spoke English well. The airport was built four years ago, but due to the increased traffic, construction of a new airport is already under way. The roads leading to town were broad and clean. We did not come across any potholes during our entire stay. Sule Pagoda , the downtown area for Yangon had changed, though not completely. Some of the land marks were still recognizable. The building, where my father had his store and office, together with the adjoining building and two cinema theatre were all redeveloped to build the Traders hotel - managed by the Shangri-la hotel chain. All the two and three story wooden structures in our street have been re-developed into four to eight story apartment buildings. The only exception being our old house, a wooden structure almost a hundred years old. The upmarket residential area around Inya Lake would be on par or be considered better than most private residences in Lutyens Delhi.

India and Myanmar share a common colonial heritage .On a sad historical note, the last Indian Mughal emperor Bahadur Shah Zaffar was exiled to Yangon and is buried close the Shwe Dagon pagoda . In exchange the British exiled the last Burmese king Thibaw Ming to  Ratnagiri in Maharastra where he died and was buried. Because of the British overlords, Myanmar's civil service had more than its fair share of Indians. Also there was a large Indian population in most major towns and cities and in the rural areas. Growing up I remember my father's business and social acquaintances in addition to  the Burmese and Chinese, included Sikhs, Muslims, Marwaris, Guajaratis Bengalis, Tamils and Parsis. Our guide mentioned that in the old Burmese movies the doctors were always portrayed as turbaned Sikhs. 

 

From an external perception Myanmar is ranked among the poorest countries in South East Asia. However, in our limited travels the population we saw appeared to be reasonably fed and clothed. We were told that until last year the minimum price for a car (regardless of the make) was US Dollars One hundred and fifty thousand (unless you were well connected). Since then the duties have now been reduced to one hundred percent. The country has now been flooded with second hand cars, predominantly Japanese, with the exception of an occasional Benz or BMW. I was extremely impressed with the supermarket we visited. It would put most Indian supermarkets to shame in terms of the variety and quantity of goods. They were not cheap by any standards but people were busy shopping. Myanmar is probably the only South Eastern Asian country which is still cash based. Even the hotels will not accept credit cards, so it was surprising to see the prices of the goods. 

With the gradual lifting of sanctions, the influx of business and foreign visitors has shot up. Apparently last year there were only two hundred and fifty thousand visitors. As of early November this year, it was three hundred and fifty thousand and still counting and the peak tourist season was just starting. There are a limited number of hotels in Yangon and as such it is expected that prices will continue to rise in the short term.

With the new foreign investment laws now in the process of being implemented (with boys selling copies of the new investment law at traffic lights), you will see a flood of investors lead by the Japan.  Myanmar was the largest recipient of Japanese war damages and subsequently of aid. There has always been a historical affinity between the two countries in spite of the war.

I would expect in the medium to long term, Myanmar will over take the other South East Asian countries with the exception of Indonesia. Myanmar has a population of almost sixty million. It has a large variety of natural resources including oil and gas. It has rivers and mountains which are gradually being used to generate hydro-electricity. It was the largest exporter of rice and could quickly re-gain its pole position. Burmese teak is of course well know, as are Burmese rubies and jade, most of which over the last decades have been smuggled across to China and Thailand. It has unexploited beaches and hill stations, plus its rich cultural heritage. I was told that almost 95% of the population was literate (could read and write Burmese) - not because of the government, but thanks to the Buddhist monks who run schools in the monasteries. Most of the people we interacted with could speak and understand English, which puts it a step ahead of Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. 

For the last three to four decades, China (both state and private investors) have dominated foreign investors, together with other South Eastern investors, all working hand in glove with the rulers. The Chinese investments are however resented, as the general feeling is that Myanmar was being used as a raw material supplier to the Chinese industrial machine without a thought being given to the contribution of the welfare of the Burmese or the environment. 

Over the next few years you will see radical changes and a bonanza of opportunities in almost all the sectors, infrastructure, (ports, airports, roads, bridges, rails), financial (banks, finance companies, insurance companies, stock markets), technology, educational and medical institutions.  I could go on, but suffice to say that if I was younger, it would have been a second generation of the Bindra family relocating to Myanmar to seek his fortune.

Is It Gurgaon or Gandagaon ?

A couple of years ago, I had lunch with a pompous,egotistical former colleague. Towards the end of the lunch he asked me where I lived ( a favorite past time of Delhi residents) ? I told him Gurgaon. His response was  "Gurgaon is a dump ". I left the lunch absolutely furious since Gurgaon is where I live.

For those of you who are not familiar with Gurgaon  ( named after Guru Dronacharaya  a guru from the Hindu mythology of Mahabharat) , supposedly a short version of Guru ka Gaon - meaning the Guru's village. It is a new township developed during the eighties to take some pressure off Delhi. It is part of the National Capital Region which is effectively a tri-city - Delhi in the middle with Noida on one side ( in the state of Uttar Pradesh) and Gurgaon ( in the state of Haryana).Gurgaon like Bangalore houses predominantly technology companies and multinationals. In addition it also the base of Maruti Suzuki which set up its first manufacturing plant here. Other Japanese companies such as Hero Honda followed. Auto-component manufacturers also set up plants in the vicinity.

The successive  state governments of Haryana have always adopted  real estate developer friendly policies, allowing the developers to purchase the land and then trying to squeeze in the infrastructure. This resulted in  developments mushrooming  after a rain, without a thought about  the necessary infrastructure . Noida on the other hand purchased the land from the farmers, built the infrastructure and then sold the land.

The residential  complex I live in is in a  neighborhood which is reasonably upmarket, and was developed by  one of Delhi's larger property firms. According to newspaper reports, there was supposed to be an area of 4 acres set aside for a electric sub-station. The developer however sold all the land and now there is no space left for the sub-station.

The power supply continues to a be problem and all the development complexes and private residences have had to invest large amounts in stand by generators which are used constantly due the erratic supply by the state electricity provider. Each year assurances are given that the situation is going to be different next year but it never is.

Every day when I drive to my office I pass by undeveloped areas, which have effectively become  garbage dumps, strewn with plastic bags and construction ruble. These are just  across the street  from fairly upmarket hotels and plush offices.

The building in which I have my office is/was  the flagship building of the second largest real estate developer in the country. Next to it is  the regional head office subsidiary  of a UK based FMCG company. Access to both these buildings is via a short street , the length of which is probably a couple of  hundred yards. The street  is a mess. Every year some patch work is done and come the monsoon, potholes appear and  the road is flooded. You would think between the two companies they would spend a few hundred thousand Rupees to fix the road permanently to ensure that the tenants and employees do not get inconvenienced. Both of them behave like ostriches and refuse to do any thing , probably because  its not within their  courtyard.

All this in spite of the state government  charging  the owners ( through the developers ) development charges on a square foot basis,  which the purchaser has to pay upfront. This is  to  be used to provide the basic infrastructure such as  road, water and electricity. A large portion of the money is apparently lying unused. Whatever money is used is spent on giving contracts to service providers who have been black listed and yet continue to get contracts.

According to my guesstimate, Gurgaon should have one of the higher literacy rates among the cities in the country , including the professionals who work in the office buildings in the city . However it  does not change our behaviour of not caring what is outside my compound. Time and again, I see middle class families or people in very expensive cars, not to mention buses, rolling down the window and throwing things on the roads, highways or outside the compound in which they live.There appears to be a total lack of civil sense.

In the almost six years since I have been here one thing has changed ( see my blog of  March 2010 ). The stray cows which used to wander the streets have disappeared. Instead we have stray dogs and strangely enough stray pigs. It is not unusual to see a pig which has been run over lying on the streets. Wonder who owns them ?

I could go on, but there are however signs of changes ( not just from cows to pigs ) but certainly the transportation infrastructure has, and is continuing to improve. The last mile connectivity from the Metro station to the residences is now provided by scooter and man powered rickshaws. There is now a large bio-diversity park under development. You no longer have to drive to Delhi for cultural activities. Surprisingly you have some of the international rock bands performing here.It is expected that the power situation will improve from next year, but I would not bet on it.

Gurgaon is going through its evolution and hopefully over the next decade , things which make it a modern city will fall into place, but what is regrettable is that the state government had the opportunity to properly plan the city and put aside the land and build the infrastructure, as was done when my former home town  Chandigarh was built ,but the successive politicians were too keen to cash in during their reign to worry about the long term. Unfortunately  this is the story of modern India.

Election By Sound Bites

Over the years I have been watching with fascination the election debates by American politicians. In the past the rulers were selected (or elected themselves ) by the size of their army or by winning battles - which showed their ability to strategize, lead, fight and win. Then as the world began to turn democratic, in most countries, the party which  wins the majority of seats in the parliament elect their own leader. In the the United States because of its unique electoral system,  while the majority of the states vote by party, it now becomes a game of wooing the small percentage of people classified as " undecided". Over the months as the election fever builds up, both party  candidates now funded by huge election war chests, supplemented by the Political Action Committees ( known as the Super PAC's) spend hundred of millions if not billions of dollars in slinging dirt and attacking each other. At times it gets extremely personal. The climax is in the form of the Presidential debates - the vice presidential debates are a side show and the warm up act.

The debates, especially the town hall format, where the debaters walk around,remind me of the World Wrestling Federation  wrestlers circling  each other and going through the jousting, which everyone knows is an act. At the end the candidates, joined by their families smile and  exchange some pleasantries to show that they are nice people. Deep inside both of them are probably  cursing  the sob for having caught you on the defensive.

After the debate the political pollsters, of which the United States has no shortage, supported  by the pundits and fact checkers highlight the sound bites, which  help "the undecided"make up their mind  as to which candidates misrepresented facts and  performed better overall.
 

The first  ground breaking debate between John F.Kennedy and Richard Milhous Nixon, helped Kennedy win. Apparently  Nixon lost because his  media advisers failed to tell  him what to wear, and because he did not put on make up, prior to the debate. The tanned, made up rich photogenic  playboy, war hero would probably have won without even uttering a word.This set the trend and for some debates there are memorable lines such as Lloyd Bensten put down of Dan Quale " Senator - you're no Jack Kennedy" or Ronald Regan's sly quip to Walter Mondale when questioned about his age  ( 73 vs Mondale's 56) " "I want you to know also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience."

If you believe the media which most people do as you often hear " according to the New York Times" or " The Times of India " or "CNN says " elections have been won on the basis of sharp comebacks such as Regan's or by their  interpretation of body language. George Bush Sr. supposedly lost the chance for a second term because he looked at his watch during the debate. This apparently implied that he was uncomfortable.  Al Gore  lost the vote of " the undecided "because of his sighs and the rolling of his eyes implying his superiority or dismisal of George Bush Jr answers to the questions.

As a neutral observer I find it hard to accept that " the undecided " would make up their mind and vote for a particular candidate because he came up with a smart aleck  retort, or by his body language during the debate . To me it  is insulting . I would vote for a candidate based on his track record as a President ( if he is running  for re-election) or his other relevant experience if he up for the first time. After all running a country is much more complex than running a company no matter how large it is, yet we do not have debates between  a short list of candidates to be the Chief Executive of Citigroup or Coca Cola or Pfizer.

I have to use one of  Al Gore's quotes from the 1992 debate, to assume that a particular candidate won an election because of his track record rather than because he was quick on the comeback. “George Bush taking credit for the Berlin Wall coming down is like the rooster taking credit for the sunrise.”

The Beginning Of The End Of Alternative Energy ?

Call me a oil and gas bull, but the recent discovery and step up in exploration of shale reserves, the fields in Africa and the step up in the melting Arctic, oil and gas, in particular the latter, will continue to play a major role in energy consumption over the next hundred years. Will this be the death knell of alternative energy in the long run ?

The rise of the alternative energy was dependent on the increasing cost of oil due to depleting reserves. Also concern about climate change , but if prices had remained as they were in the sixties there would have been very little interest in alternative energy.  Predictions were made that the world was going to be running out energy. Alternative energy sources such as nuclear  energy, solar power, wind power and hydro electric power, were all being touted as the next big thing. Variations of these are wave based energy , offshore wind mills and the like , but they are unlikely to reach commercial production stages.

There have been numerous  nuclear accidents which have happened over the years. You can Google "nuclear energy accidents " and you will find a long list.The well known ones include the Washington Public Power Supply System in the United States, Chernobyl in the USSR, and Fukushima recently in Japan. Incidentally it was not the first time Fukushima had a problem.In 1978.also it some problems.  As a result of this both Germany and Japan , major producers of nuclear energy have decided to gradually close down all nuclear based power generation. India in the meantime appears to be the odd man out by continuing  to tout increased nuclear production.

Based on my limited knowledge of solar power, one of the problems of the solar panels appears to be  the efficiency rate and  the overall costs. While countries such as China and Germany have been subsidizing  solar generation,  to increase the volume of production of solar panels, the manufacturers are going through a rough time. In the meantime solar panel farms are being set up in deserts in many countries, but overall contribution to total energy remains extremely modest .

Wind power off course continues to considered as another alternative, but with strong winds needed and large areas required,these are likely to be in remote areas and grids and transmission lines built to be able to bring the power to urban areas.

Hydro-electricity generating stations are being built but to scale them to sufficient size, huge dams have to be built which leads  to the relocation of population and destruction of environment, as was the case during the Three Gorges project in China , probably the largest such attempt.

This is not to imply that oil and gas production is without environment risk. Traditional oil drilling including deep sea offshore production has been going on for decades and yes there have been accidents, but not on the scale or the consequences of a nuclear melt down in Chernobyl or Fukushima.

Also the long term consequences of new fracking technology use for shale production remains to be seen. There have been reports of it causing minor earthquakes. In addition the large use of water with the possibility of  pollution of water sources is obviously a major cause of concern.

However  with their deep pockets, their strong lobbying abilities and based on the decades of experience which the oil and gas industry has in resolving  problems in difficult terrains, such as Alaska, deep offshore production, sideways drilling, it is likely that they will find means and ways to overcome all of the major hurdles.

Having said all this, it is unlikely that the decline of the alternative energy will start happening next year or next five years, but more likely over the next couple of decades. I could be proven totally wrong and a major fracking accident on the scale of Fukushima could bring the industry to a halt, but if I were a betting man, I would not go short long term on the petroleum  industry.