Are Online Retailers Going To Change Retailing In India ?

In the nineties when Amazon was launched during the first internet , I had a bet with a friend that the online stores would never get off the ground. I felt that people like to browse, touch and feel before they bought   and that Amazon was going to be bankrupt within a few years.

Boy was I wrong ? I lost the bet. Not only has it prospered and together with others in the online genre have totally changed not just the retail industry , but also had major impact on the publishing and music industry. Over the last few years it is now doing the same in India.

A few years ago I placed a order for a new computer for my home use,  from a  hardware vendor from whom we had been buying computers /printers for my small company. The computer was never delivered and to cut a long story short I had to write off the money which I had paid in advance. This is not the only bad experience I have had. It is always a case of once I have your money, you are at my mercy. However the online retailers are about to change all that.

This reminds me of the experience I lived through in Hong Kong. I arrived in Hong Kong in 1975. There were no retail chains and there was one major  upmarket department store. The service was terrible, particularly if you happened to be non-Chinese and even more if you were non-white.

However thing started to change with the arrival of a retail chain called Giordano, started by a maverick - Jimmy Lai, He stocked clothes which were well made at a reasonable price  and better still, staffed them with young cheerful polite staff. Gradually other chains emerged such as Join in, Espirit all with a similar service model and Hong Kong retail underwent a sea change. Of course it also helped that  since then the rest of Asia , including China, India ,Thailand etc all prospered and it was not just the Europeans and Americans tourists who had  fat pocket books.

In India, of  course money is not much of an issue but with some retailers honesty is. They will  take the advance payment and promise delivery by a certain date and rarely is it met. You have to keep chasing them and many times, it is of  sub-standard quality or not quite what was expected, but you really do not have a choice.

My daughter in New York is a big believer in ordering on-line and I could not understand why she did that.  Now after about three months of using the services of the online retailers in India,I can fully understand her preference. The first serious online retailer in India was Flipkart , now followed by slew of others including Amazon.

The best example is that of  buying books. I used to go to a book store in Delhi  and while the prices were reasonable and when physically there, the owner would provide keen service and flood me with suggestions , ninety percent of which were of no interest. However in a numbers of instances  I called his number to check about the availability of certain books and there would no response, and even where I left messages there would be no call backs. There where instances where he promised to deliver some books through his brother's store nearer where I lived and in spite of numerous calls and visits, never got the books. This in spite of the fact on every visit my family and I  would buy enough for him to stop attending to other customers and come to help us instead.

Now sitting at my desk I can order even a single book at a price almost at par, if not better delivered to my door stop on the basis of cash on delivery. If I had changed my mind about the purchase, I could return it, although I have never had to do that.

Unfortunately however  my experience of ordering an electronic item from one of the retailers from Amazon fulfillment was not a happy experience. Hopefully this is an aberration, but it would make me wary of ordering electronic items in the future.

As elsewhere Amazon is trying to break new grounds. It is reportedly  exploring delivery to the rural areas through the Indian Postal System. In the sixties the Postal System was superb, but like a lot of other institutions in India being part of the government with no accountability and life time employment, the services declined leading to a eco system of local and national couriers where people use them rather the post for normal deliveries . Perhaps if they do team up they will have to meet Amazon's delivery standard and we will see  the re-vitalization of  the Indian Post.

I wish Amazon, Flipkart, and the others all the very best  and hope they will all do a Giodarno in India. 

Is Aam Admi Going To Be The Change Catalyst In Indian Politics ?

In India it is not just start ups in IT which go viral within a short time. A new start up on the political scene the " Aam Admi Party" or the Common Man's Party which came into existence less than a year ago has shaken the political scene. It knocked out the venerable Indian Congress Party and crippled the efforts of the Bharatiya Janata Party 's to obtain a majority in the most important state politically - Delhi , the country's capital, where the Congress had hoped to make a return for the third time. Their seat tally was embarrassingly reduced to a single digit number. The impact of the Aam Admi Party is such that even the heir apparent of the Congress Party Rahul Gandhi  has gone on record that he would look at following their model. 

This just confirms what I said in  my blog of October 18th*  " Looking At India Through A Glass Half Full". I mentioned that I was beginning to feel a bit more optimistic that there were changes happening and that unlike the past I felt that these changes would be within my life time.Slightly over two years ago a social activist Anna Hazare went on a fast against corruption and aroused the imagination of the nation. All the young people from across the country rallied around him. His goal was for the Government to pass an anti-corruption bill. The government asked him to break his fast with  promises that they would bring the bill to Parliament as soon as possible. However with the tacit support of the opposition parties kept watering down the initial draft and  delaying the bill  which still  has not been  passed. This affected the movement's credibility and emboldened the politicians that none of these social activists would succeed, and that they  need  not change.

The other incident which  aroused the anger of the nation against the political and enforcement agencies was the violent rape in Delhi where the concerned authorities were initially  slow to respond and highlighted the weak law and order issue. However seeing the mood of the populace , they then fast tracked the persecution of the men charged with the crime.

Sensing that the general public, particularly the urban population was fed up with the refusal of the rulers regardless of their political affiliation,  to change their way of doing business no matter what, one of Anna's key aides a former bureaucrat Arvind Kejriwal ( a Magsaysay award winner for his social work) , recognized that he would not be able to change the system from the  outside. He decided to change the system from within by joining  with other similar minded people and forming the Aam Admi Party. Their elections symbol was the broom with the obvious message that their goal was to  sweep clean Indian politics.

While starting a party is nothing unusual , as in almost every state you have strong  regional parties.As a result increasingly at the national level, political parties are becoming dependent on them to rule at the center. What was different about Kejriwal's party was the manner he went about raising the party's profile , selecting the candidates and raising funding. During the course of the last year, together with his team,  he vocally and visibly supported and drew attention to issues such as an individual's plight, or some infrastructure which was badly in need of repair or the indifference of the politicians of bureaucrats to blatant corruption.This got him the attention of the media and the populace started rallying around him.

His timing is opportune as with the gradual shifting of the population from the rural to the urban, you are seeing a rise in the numbers in not just the  metro but also the second, third and fourth tier cities. With the increasing  middle class and the lower middle class, they are also becoming more aware of their rights and become more vocal and not afraid to walk the talk.

When he announced that his party would stand for election in Delhi, people flocked to him, not just from Delhi and the surrounding areas, but from all over India and  from overseas. They volunteered their time, skills and efforts. In the selection of candidates, he chose unknown  candidates but who had clean records and who were active in their respective communities.

Unlike other political parties whose funding has traditionally been opaque , the Aam Admi Party recorded the name and details of every single donor, including those from  overseas Indians. They  also set a target of Rs.200 million. Once they reached that target, they closed their books.

For each constituency they came out with a manifesto which dealt with local issues. They campaigned hard and used the social media to the fullest extent. Their technology team of volunteers were based in Bangalore.

Arvind Kejriwal also decided to challange Mrs.Shiela Dixit in her own constituency, one of the most up market areas of Delhi. Mrs. Dixit was the the three times Chief Minister and a close confidant of the Gandhi family. Embarrassingly for her, Kejriwal won with a majority of over 20,000 votes. Overall a humiliating defeat for " Shiela Aunty" as she is popularily known and for the Congress Party.

There was jubilation across the country. The victory was significant not because that it was a new party, but the manner in which it conducted itself. The selection and the fund raising was totally transparent. There were no candidates with criminal records.Through their manifesto, they clearly defined what their goals were, if elected. What was also interesting was that because Aam Admi Party declared upfront that they would not seek the help of other parties to form a coalition, nor entice some winning candidates to switch parties, the Bharitiya Janata Party was obliged to follow suit. In the past this would not have happened.

Regretfully they did not obtain the majority , but neither did the Bharitiya Janata Party and there is a good possibility of the elections being re-held.The party has also declared their intention to establish a countrywide footprint to fight the national election  due in the first half o 2014.

The stunning success of the  Aam Admi Party has woken up all the political parties that it was not going to be business as usual this time around . The country is getting fed up with their continued inability to deliver on the promises made during election times and their unwillingness to change their habits.

Hopefully this time around the Aam Admi Party will get the majority in Delhi  to be able to prove that they know not just that they are  able to to manage a good campaign, but also how to run a clean ,competent government.Expectations are that they will go national , at least in the key states and will also  have a voice in the Parliament to speak out loud and clear against the mis-deeds of the party in power.

India will be watching  !!!!


*( http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2013/10/looking-at-india-through-glass-half-full.html)

Nelson Mandala - R.I.P

I would like to join the thousand of others to add my few words on Nelson Mandela - in my view the greatest leader I have seen in my lifetime.

To me the greatest thing about him was his vision of the society of the Rainbow Nation which could also be the blue print of the world in general. While there have been other leaders who have suffered long , severe prison sentences and  who have fought for independence there are very few who have been able to achieve what he has .

Perhaps it is the very composition of  the South African nation where you have people of all colors, races and religions which has lead to it  becoming  the cradle for two of the greatest inspirational leaders the world has seen in the last century- Gandhi and Mandela. Both leaders showed grace in not showing enmity toward their former captors at whose hand they suffered long terms of imprisonment.  

The difference between the two was that Gandhi used the satyagraha , non violent movement to help achieve independence for India. Unfortunately some fanatics put an end to his efforts to be the moral beacon to both the newly created nations.  Mandela on the other hand was not fighting for independence but for the right for society to be treated as equal regardless of color, race or religion.

While he helped India achieve independence, Gandhi unfortunately failed  in convincing his fellow Congress party colleagues  to keep India together and lead to the creation of two nations who are now enemies. Mandela on the other hand ensured that South Africa did not go down the path of other African nations such as Zimbabwe which lead to the path of destruction. His message  to the South African population was that everyone had a right to be a South African and should live in peace and harmony.The Rainbow  was an apt metaphor for  the world's society and  his vision is something the rest of the world should aspire to.
 
The mourning or should I say  the celebration of his life  not just among the entire South African population, but around the world,  regardless of race, religion and color,  shows the  regard and affection which they had for Nelson Mandela.

Also unlike other "leaders" who assume that because of the hardships they suffered, they should be rewarded by lifetime recognition and  appointed  life time Presidents , long outliving their sell by date. Nelson Mandela served one term as President and voluntarily stepped down.This should be a role model for other politicians, leaders and dictators.

I hope the present and upcoming leaders of South Africa will adhere to the Madiba's vision , although there are already signs among the younger crop who are beginning to exercise their " right of entitlement" . It will be sad to see his  vision being lost and South Africa going the same way as other countries .

In the meantime like thousand of others I could not but help shed tears at the passing away of the world's beloved Madiba.

Looking At India Through A Glass Half Full

 "Choose to be optimistic,it feels better"- The Dalai Lama 

Over the last few years, almost every day when you pick up the newspaper, you sigh in despair. Regardless of which aspect you look at whether its  political , economic,social,  communal, or defence you wonder whether we are deluding ourselves in thinking we are on the right track. Whether we will be able to reduce poverty, whether we will achieve our widely stated aspirational goal of becoming an economic super power. Looking at the head lines and the television screen you would say " lets stopping kidding ourselves".

Mine is probably a solitary view but if you look closely and not get clouded by the big picture, you will see isolated glimmers of hope emerging which when consolidated does not appear to be as bad , particularly if you look at it from a long term perspective.

Looking at the negatives, enough is being written and spoken so there is no need to list them.Let's look at the law makers, by which I mean the political parties. The only  difference between the  two dominant parties is that the Congress, in spite of what they say, appears to take a  dynastic approach in selecting its leaders and I am not just referring to the Nehru-Gandhi family.The Bharitiya Janata Party whose leaders are not  hereditary , has had its share of problems with aspersions cast against some of their leaders as well. So regardless of who comes into power do not expect major changes in policies. It is expected that in the next elections neither party will have enough seats to form a majority, but will have  to rely on the support of the regional parties, so you will continue to have the push and pull which will affect the implementation of policies .

Why then do I look at the Indian glass as being half full ?

First look at the economy and the  dynamics of economic decisions made in the country.This is done by the nexus between the politicians, the bureaucrats, and a few  major business houses. While I would not be as bold to say that this has been swept clean, there are indications of change, which I think will make the crony capitalists and the fixers a bit more careful and hopefully lead to a gradual  decline.With the reduction of these underhand deals, it forces the government to level the playing field.

Also the recent downturn in the economy and the decline of the Rupee, the government has realized it cannot  arbitrarily change the rules, (such as changing a law with retroactive effect going back to fifty years) and expecting it  not to  have any impact. This made both  the foreign and increasingly the honest  large Indian business houses nervous and all exercised their  the option to invest elsewhere.The rules are now being changed and the economic situation is now stabilizing.

The most visible and forceful impact on unearthing the  the links between the government andthe  business groups, has been the former Controller and Auditor General of India. Under the guidance of a career bureaucrat who was probably appointed to the job because the government probably thought he would be someone who would toe the line. Yet once he stepped into the  job, he highlighted the mis-deeds of the politicians, the bureaucrats and the business.With the help of the media a a series of "favored" deals were highlighted and the government was forced to take action. Where the government hesitated  or public interest groups or individuals such as Subramanium Swamy and Prashant Bhusan or a Non Governmental Organization stepped in and went to court. They are not afraid to take on the government and the courts have taken cognizance and pressurized the government to investigate the charges and report to the courts.  This would not have happened in the past. Things would have been swept under the carpet.

 In my blog of July 16th, I had mentioned that on July 3rd the Supreme Court had ruled that convicted legislators should not be allowed to attend the state or central legislators. Recently there were two prominent politicians were expelled. This is a giant step as 1460 Members of Parliament  & Member of the State Legislative Assemblies have criminal cases against filed against them. The legal process being what it is in India, it took close to twenty years for these two politicians to be convicted and finally removed.Politicians from all parties tried hard to submit a ordinance to the President which would over ruled the judgement , but facing  a huge surge of public opinion against that, it was withdrawn. The impact of this is that convicted felons will no longer grace the halls of parliament and legislature. 

The second  significant event is the passing of the Right To Information Act. This was passed a few years ago.While not universally successful  throughout India, the common man is increasingly  using it to seek information from the the government as to why a particular service is not being delivered ( for example why is it taking six months for his passport to be issued ?). Also details about government expenditure and stories are emerging about the misuse of funds by politicians and bureaucrats and reported in the media. Using the results, in some cases public interest litigation is being filed against the culprits.

The other battle which  the government and the political parties are fighting is to keep political donations out of the ambit of the Right To Information by introducing a bill. It will be interesting to see if this eventually  gets passed or will the government be forced to withdraw it because of public opinion ?

The third significant  tool to root out corruption which is battling its way, with strong opposition is the Jan Lokpal Bill.or the Citizens Ombudsman Bill. It is effectively a  Anti-Corruption, Grievance Redressal And Whistleblower Protection Bill. Since 1963 attempts have been made to introduce this bill but is bitterly opposed or attempts are made to water it down so as to dilute its effectiveness. In my opinion it will be passed within the next political term.

The fourth item which is having an impact is the gradual  implementation of E-governance. Almost all of the states have started this initiative with Gujarat leading the way. This ranges from speedy delivery of public services to passport issuance to public sector tendering of projects to the issuance of bio-metric  Aadhaar cards which ensures that the needy have some identity  which enables them to claim the benefits and open bank accounts. While these are far from perfect and it will take some time to be truly effective, the Economic Times of 29th October reported that  over a billion  e-governance transactions have been consummated 

With the Supreme Court ruling, the Right to Information and the Jan Lokpal Bill ( once passed), the continued implementation of e-governance,  you will see the cleansing of the Indian system starting to happen.

On the political front, activist Arvind Kejriwal has launched his own party with its candidates being selected in a transparent manner and strictly adhering to the  Election Commissioners rules on expenditure. Having started less than a year ago, it has made substantial in-roads in the capital. Based on initial surveys it is expected that it might end up playing the role of a king maker. It will be an embarrassment to both the political parties.

As Gurcharan Das a management consultant and former head of Procter & Gamble India, had mentioned in one his presentation that when the middle class reaches close to fifty percent, they start playing an active role in demanding a change in the how the country is run. While we might have not reached that level yet, the middle class is becoming increasingly vocal and active in expressing their unhappiness, such as the recent rape cases in Delhi and Mumbai, 

The media is of course playing an active role in highlighting the crimes, the mis-deeds, but the bias appears to be towards the urbanized middle-class. Nevertheless even at the state level if the perpetrator is a politician, a relative of the politician or a high level bureaucrat, the media picks it up and this forces the police and the state to take action.In the past this would have not even be brought to light.

All this does not mean to say that we can expect better governance, better security, better services being provided  by the government departments  in the immediate future,  but as pressure is being put to make their operations more transparent, they will gradually have to start delivering. The change will be gradual, but the pace of change is going to start picking up.

In a recent book "The Party "  I am reading  about China the author mentions that in terms of economic development,what China has been able to achieve in thirty years,  it took the United Kingdom and the United States a century, but do we want to follow in China political model?

 Its bad enough having our own dynastic rulers, but shall we replace this with a non-transparent system which every decade or so,  foists some unknown party leader as our ruler - although even in China the dynastic approach seems to be seeping in through the appointment of sons and grandsons of Mao's closest comrades, commonly referred to as princelings, being appointed to senior positions.

While I did not anticipate some of these changes during my life time, I am a bit more optimistic now and feel that we will start  to see some of these happening  in my lifetime. After all I did see these radical changes happening over a period of two to three decades in the city of  states Hong Kong and Singapore where I lived. I recognize that India is on a different scale, but it has been more than fifty years since independence. All it takes is for good governance to start from the top and you will be amazed at how quickly it filters down I hope that I will live to see the day.

Is The United States Going To Have Another Golden Age ?

During the last fifty years or so, there have been at least  three periods when the world's crystal ball gazers ( including some of the Americans themselves ) have been writing about the decline about the United States.This time after visiting New York after almost two years since  my last visit in October 2011, I am even more convinced that these naysayers are wrong.  United States is going to have another golden period similar to the fifties and sixties, driven by its shale oil and gas and its new manufacturing techniques. 

The first time every one was talking about America's decline was in the early seventies when oil prices shot up from about three dollars to twelve dollars.This combined with President Jimmy Carter's fiasco in Tehran convinced everyone that it was the beginning of the end of America not just as economic power but as a super power. That was not the case. It restructured and bounced back.

Then in the late eighties the world started speculating that Japan was going to take over as the world largest economy. The Japanese banks and companies market values shot through the roof . The far sighted Americans insisted  their children study Japanese. The world oohed and aah-ed about Japanese manufacturing technique and its just in time logistics. Looking back you would think how could the world have believed that this tiny nation without any natural resources, which had lost a war a few decades earlier could be the cock of the hill, but it was the general feeling. However that feel good feeling for the Japanese lasted about a decade.

The new century saw the emergence of another burgeoning world economic power,China. This was a more plausible candidate considering a couple of century ago they were the world's largest economy. While it is too early too start speculating that it too will follow the Japanese path, what is interesting to see that towards the end of the first decade of the new century, the Chinese state owned companies were among the world's largest . Now five years later, nine out of the top ten world companies are again  American. Among the fifty largest companies in the world more than fifty percent are American.As has been written often enough the Chinese , in spite of its large population will have the same greying population. The leaders have been aware of this for some time , but appear to be unwilling to change their one child population. If this continues they will face the same issues as the Japanese where there will be a  relatively smaller percentage of the population supporting the older generation.The difference is the Japanese will be wealthier on a individual basis than the Chinese even if the Chinese economies overtakes the United States.

Over the last five years the dynamics of the American economy seem to be undergoing  a once in a lifetime change. After almost sixty years it has become energy independent. While New York might not be truly reflective of mainstream America, during my recent visit to New York it seemed that more than fifty  percent of the vehicles on the road were either SUV's, vans or large limousines. Apparently some of the trucking companies have started switching to gas to fuel their fleets. I would assume that it is a matter of time before the car manufacturers start churning out cars running on natural gas as well.

 At the risk of repeating what I had said two years ago, the cheap energy is pulling back  not just some of the energy intensive industries such as fertilizers, steel, but according to the  Boston Consulting Group, other basic industries such as toys,automobile parts, bags and utensils. The increase in Chinese labor cost is pushing the re-shoring of the manufacturing back to America.

In addition with the economic situation stabilizing in Mexico, it together with the United States and Canada will be the largest free trade zone in the world. With Mexico providing the cheap labor,Canada and the US cheap energy, its  market for the products will once again provide  the economic engine for the rest of the world.The latest immigration statistics from Mexico shows that the immigration from and to the United States is balanced.

The above  together with its academic infrastructure and its  impending immigration policies welcoming students with background in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics, will add to the further inflows of the best and the  brightest from around the world.

Finally the  catalyst to the growth is the availability of capital like no other in the world. The capital markets in the United States has deep pockets catering to different types of risks, funding social ventures.While the Wikipedia still ranks London as the top financial center, the Huffington Post quotes a study commissioned by the City of London and carried out by A/Yen Group,which ranks  New York as  number one.In my personal opinion, it  will be some time before London regains its top spot,if ever. 

In the meantime while the Republicans and the Democrats continue  their  one up-man ship, guised under political ideology, it is still the world's premier safe haven.United States Treasury securities continue to be the largest holdings of almost all  the reserves of sovereign nations.

With this capital flow combined with the change in reduction of oil imports and  manufactured goods,together with increased exports, and inflow of money finding a safe home,  I would be betting on the American economy and the dollar in the long term.


New York Random Observations - September 2013


This time again I spent about two weeks in New York, of which I spent almost five days in bed due to an infection. However during  the remaining period I walked the streets, read the newspapers, and generally observed New York, New York !!  While I have always been a huge fan of London, I am in the process of switching my loyalties to New York.Perhaps this subliminally switching is happening  because my daughter lives there and  I have not been to London for a few years, but I think it is more than that.

New York is booming . The streets, the restaurants, the stores, the museums, the supermarkets were all as crowded as last time.Tickets to the Broadway shows were almost impossible to get unless you had booked weeks in advance. The Apple store was as full as last time. I do not think there is any city in the world has as many eating places or the variety of cuisines as New York. Hong Kong might match in restaurants per capita but not in terms of variety. As an example one evening some friends decided to get some take away from a Pakistani restaurant. Since my friend was raving about the food, I decided to go along. Putting my hand on my heart, I could say that if you moved that entire place, including the clientele,  to a trucking stop in Punjab, India, it would fit right in. You would not have to make any change.  The only thing which would stand out would be one of  the Hispanic "chef", but even he could be mistaken for a north east Indian. In my personal opinion London falls behind.

On the real estate front having lagged behind other international cities such as London, Hong Kong, Singapore etc, on a relative basis , New York ( particularly Manhattan, and neighboring Brooklyn) is making up for lost time. Apartments put up for sale , particularly condominiums receive bids substantially more the asking price. Bidders are ready to pay cash rather than it be subject to availability of mortgage for fear of getting gazumped.In some parts of the city , prices appear to  have gone up almost twenty-thirty percent  in the last twelve to eighteen months. Put your money in New York !!



The above is based on my observations as a lay man without any serious research expect for reading newspapers and an occasional stab at Wikipedia. I last visited New York almost two years ago in October 2011.After my visits I wrote two blogs based on my observations.( See (1)  http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/12/rumors-about-slow-death-of-united.html (2) http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/11/new-york-random-observations.html )

You Dont Always Get What You Want !!!

In my blog of September 15th,2011, I had said "Be careful what you wished for " about the Middle- East.(http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/09/be-careful-what-you-wish-for.html).

The West had always wanted change in that region. Now that change has come, perhaps this is not what they had anticipated. Unfortunately the real world rarely  works according to the plans laid out by America's political strategists.While some of the countries have been able to remove their dictators, they have been left  with anarchy and chaos.

Iraq has an elected government, but continues to be riven by sectarian violence, between  different religious groups and other vested interests. Libya is in a state of confusion. In Syria you have  had civil war for over  a year. Dislodging Assad has not been as simple a task as expected. There is no unified opposition. Assad is supported by his tribe members, the Hizbollah and  Iran, not to mention political support from Russia ( with arms ) and China. At of now, Assad seems far from ready to throw in the towel. If he survives, he is going to remember who his friends and foes were and could  retaliate.

Egypt might have gotten rid of Hosni Mubarak, but the elected government headed by the Muslim Brotherhood tried to enforce their grip too soon, and scared off the more secular sections of the populace, providing an opportunity for the Army to step in once again "in order to provide stability ". Daily killings  of hundreds of people are being reported, but the Muslim Brotherhood supporters are not backing off . How long this stalemate is going to last is unknown. In the meantime the West is wringing its hands, not knowing what to do. They wanted democracy. The country had free elections, however the party which came into power was not to their liking. Now they are back to square one again with the army in control. Do you get a feeling of  déjà vu ?


While most of the royal states have wisely kept their heads down, there are a few wealthy ones taking sides. They seem to  be treading on dangerous grounds. In the medium and long term, depending on how the cards stack up,there  could be  a back lash and you could have a situation when the Islamist's turn on them. The US has in the last few years become  less dependent on oil imports ( see my blog of September 2011 http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/09/back-to-future.html ), and will have to decide which allies it is going to support with boots on the ground. The rest will have to fend for themselves. Do not be surprised if you see  more democratic countries emerging over the next couple of decades, after an initial period of turmoil. There is also the likelihood of further  sectarian violence as  the dominant sects  in some of these countries  play a repressive role  supported by their counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Iraq.

Over the next decade or so you will have countries in the  Middle East in a state of turmoil. Will it impact the oil prices ? Much  less than it would have a few years ago. Keep watching this space. 

America vs. India

I was just viewing the latest issue of the Economist ( August 10th)on my I phone, and looked at the section on The United States. Of the seven headers, except for one, I was amazed about how both countries were dealing with similar issues.

The first  "No  speaks", had a sub-heading of " Barrack Obama's patience runs short " and continued to talk about whether America can do business with Vladimir Putin ? Sounds like India's relationship with Pakistan , particularly with the recent killing by the Pakistan soldiers.Every time the Pakistan politicians make noises about wanting to mend fences, the Army puts a spanner in the works to make sure it does not happen.

The second "Just a little local difficulty " talks about the sexual misbehavior and the questionable business transactions by the Mayor of San Diego. You could pick many our local Municipal Corporation Heads or even the Chief Ministers and you probably would be able to levy the same charges.

"Gifts galore", the third one talks about the Governor of Virginia accepting gifts from some questionable corporate head and that it was small beer compared to the corruption of  the governors of Illinois and Louisiana, who were serving jail time. The only difference in India is that none of the Chief Ministers would  be charged, leave alone serve time.

"No play , no pay", talks about the financial mess  the state of  Illinois is, with large unfunded pension liabilities among other things. In India present liabilities ( budget deficits ) does not prevent the Chief Ministers from handing out free electricity to farmers , free lap tops to students,subsidies for gas used for home cooking which is used primarily in the urban areas.

"We will get them next year" is about the rampant drug use in baseball. While there have been no incidents of drug use among Indian cricketers, the match fixing and misuse of the sporting bodies, continues to be a problem.

"Keeping the mighty honest" writes about how the concern that " the new wave of press barons should not allow newspapers to become niche products". India is one of the few countries where newspaper circulation continues to increase. However a few years ago, taped telephone conversations revealed the close nexus between prominent journalists and the politicians, and how mutual back scratching helped each other out.


 Is it any wonder that Indian do well in the United States ?