Thursday, April 29, 2010

The Unraveling of the EU ?

The recent bail out of Greece by the IMF and EU members shows the weak link in the EU concept. The original concept of the EU market which allowed free trade was expanded to free flow of people and eventually a common currency. Until the dismembering of the old USSR, the concept was fine - but then EU started getting ambitious . They expanded and in addition to the Mediterranean countries also started opening the door to some of the former CIS states.

The problem is that you have a mix of economies. With Germany and France playing a dominant role they are being asked to carry the heavier burden of bailing out Greece. With their own economies just beginning to recover and unemployment still being an issue,the voters are reluctant to see the German ant supporting the Greek grasshopper. While this is the first time, it certainly wont be the last time. There is concern about the other PIIGS nations ( Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) also requiring support. If this happens then you can be sure that the voters in Germany,France and the other stronger economies will throw up their hands.

Will this be end of the Euro ? Perhaps one is being overly concerned that the countries will be able to avoid default and the Euro will survive. However, the politicians have to give some thought as to how to deal with a possible default by two or three EU countries simultaneously. The possibility of this increases as EU encourages some of the smaller former CIS states to join in order to remove them from Russian's area of influence.


They will have to think hard before going ahead.

Volcker Rule

As part of the financial regulations reform , the US government is proposing the Volcker Rule named after the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. The proposed Volcker Rule prohibits banks,including investments banks such as Goldman or Morgan Stanley from taking proprietary positions or from trading derivatives.

This appears to be a rather radical step.I can understand banks who accept public deposits being prohibited from doing so.However if you do not accept public deposits or do not receive the shelter of the umbrella of the bank holding
company , then institutions should be allowed to trade for their own account.

The concern is the unraveling of the counter party risks as happened during the LTCP or Lehman situations where default by one institution lead to a domino effect.

I would argue that all derivatives should be exchange traded. While there has been intensive coverage of the losses of institutional investors who should have known better, very little coverage has been given to customers who were incited to invest in structured derivative products by their private bankers. Based on contacts in the private banking and friends, I know that private banking customers ( at least in Asia ) have lost a significant portion of their net worth by investing in these products.The only way out for them was by selling back to the bank - maybe ( who had sold them the product) at a price which they determine - and you thought only casino's have a house advantage !!

Also there should be a limitation on the size of the proprietary books as a percentage of their capital. After all the risk managers at the counter party banks, if they monitor their exposures carefully, will not ( or should not )allow them to exceed the equivalent of a single borrower/counter party limit.

The auditors and the regulators should insist ( subject to strict punishment) that these institutions clearly report the size of the proprietary books and the number of counter parties and the geographies they deal with.

Similarly the rating agencies in their evaluation should take this into account.

This by itself would imply a health warning for institutions who deal with them.

On the other hand if these institutions then choose to take positions on equity, commodities etc for their own books, let them do it. Their shareholders know what they are buying into. Caveat Emptor

Monday, April 19, 2010

Advertising

Yet another IPL TV Commercial showing blacks as bushmen.

This time its a Sprite commercial (a Coca Cola brand) showing two guys surrounded by bushmen with spears. One of them starts jumping around muttering some mumbo jumbo and supposedly causing offense to the tribal chieftain. His companion who is holding a bottle of Sprite offers it to him and becomes his best friend.

While I assume this is meant to be in jest, which world do the advertising agencies live in. What if the advertising agency in the United States shows the average Indian as fakirs lying on a bed of nails ? There would be a huge uproar and we would all demand an apology.

I am surprised that a multinational firm such as Coca Cola is not more culturally sensitive. Perhaps they should dub this advertisement in Swahili and show it in East Africa and see the reaction there. Pepsi would have a walk over.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Education – On the Right Track Finally?

Since he was appointed as Education Minister, Kapil Sabil has been a whirlwind of activity. He has tried to draw a balance between the pressure of school and the quality of education. Primary school education has become compulsory. The Board Exam for the 10th class has been abolished. Also recognizing that the government will not be able to meet the need of the young growing population, he has opened the doors to private sector, but in a much more disciplined way than was done previously. He is considering allowing foreign universities to open campuses in India. While he has done a lot more in the short period of his appointment, a lot more needs to be done.

There is a need to enforce discipline among the educators in government institutions. According to a study, teacher absenteeism is a high 25%in government schools. A reason for the high rate of truancy among girl’s students is the lack of toilets. Studies have also noted that attendance particularly in poorer rural areas goes up when mid day meals are served. These suggestions have been made and written about time and time again.

Allowing private sector participation is a good idea, provided it is closely monitored and audited by independent third parties, rather than government departments. There are independent NGO’s who play this role. The government has to be selective about who is given the go ahead to set up an educational institution, whether it is a school or a university. Look at what has happened in Australia which to encourage income from education and to have a pipeline of workers at the low end skill base, allowed the establishment of vocational schools of dubious reputation which was used a conduit for indirect migration into Australia.


On the issue of allowing foreign universities to set up campuses, one has to remember that the reason why institutions establish their reputations is not just because of their class room lectures, but the supporting infrastructure, the research labs, the libraries, the interaction between the students themselves and the faculty. Having flying in academics lecturing in high rise campuses will not quite be the same. You will not have top tier universities lining up, as they would not want to dilute their brand equity.


Finally we have home grown world class institutions such as the IIM’s, the IIT’s , the Indian Institute of Science and more. They have been around for years and have established a formidable reputation. They have alumni who have done well and would be happy to contribute to the endowment funds. It appears that there is reluctance to encourage this as the regulators would loose their controls over the institutions.

Recognizing that the government does not have the necessary funds, its role should be that of an incubator in establishing these intuitions and they are able to raise endowments and become independent similar to the institutions in the United States. One of course has to ensure that there is a certain incubation period and that no one subsequently tried to gain control.

With one of the worlds youngest population base, we need to make sure that this demographic advantage does not become a demographic disadvantage because of a lack of education and job opportunities.

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

The Global Village & Free Market Enterprise - at a Wedding in Kovalam

At a wedding in Kerala over the weekend, we saw wonderful examples of the global village and the working of a free market.

First the wedding. It was held at a beach resort in Kovalam. Most of the ceremonies were held in the evening on the beach. The settings were magical. The host was meticulous about the arrangements, having thought of every detail (an ex-private banker, but probably could now have a second career as a wedding planner). He is married to my wife’s school friend who is from Bengal,he is from Assam, now happily settled in London. The groom was from Ireland. The bride's  elder sister got married to an English boy two years ago.

The Irish like the Indians tend to be family oriented. You had a large contingent of Paddies who participated very actively in form and " spirit (s)" in all the functions. To the loud  blowing of conch shells, the groom dressed in a kurta and dhoti and desperately hanging on to a red umbrella ,arrived on an elephant. While sliding off the elephant we were all concerned that his dhoti would unravel, but he was quite adept at holding it together.

During the hour plus it took for the rituals, the pandit ji stopped mid way many times, got up, rummaged in his various plastic bags for the necessary ingredients Wearing a traditional conical Assamese head gear the groom patiently sat through the rituals. Watching the expression on the bride’s face it was obvious she was having a ball and was having a difficult time keeping a straight face. People went up and down the mandap. Photographers climbed all over to get the best shots. For the Irish the informality of the ceremony was probably a contrast to their solemn Catholic Church wedding which is to follow in a few weeks.

After the ceremony the dinner seating was communal with the waiters lungis tied above the knees, ladling traditional Keralite food  out of steel buckets, onto the  banana leaves. You had a choice of eating with your fingers or spoons .

In the midst of this, you had a young English boy, about eleven or twelve years of age, running around offering to fetch drinks for the guests (from the bar which was about 200 yards away) for Rs.20. The guests were initially taken back, but seeing the gumption of the young lad, went along. Soon a number of other children offered to do the same. The prices started coming down and hit rock bottom of Rs.5.


As in a real free market, dirty tricks started and a rumor was spread that the boy’s main competitor – a young girl about the same age, was spitting in the drinks. To control the damage, the girl went to all the tables denying it. This was such a classic case of creating a market, competition bringing the prices down. Dirty tricks in trying to oust the competition.


To cap the ceremonies there was a performance by the indomitable Usha Utap almost in her fifth decade as a performer, but with her traditional repertoire of oldies, had the guests – the Indians, the Irish , the English and other nationalities, on their feet  until sadly it had to come to an end around mid-night.The only thing missing was a perhaps a rendition of Danny Boy !!!

On my way back thinking about the cross cultural wedding and the young entrepreneurial children, I have come to the conclusion that if I had to bet on one country in Europe, it would be Britain. It has a bright future.








Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Raining on India & China’s Parade

Newspapers , magazines, blogs, op-ed pieces cannot say enough about how much progress China and India have made over the last two to three decades. While China had a head start, India is now being compared to the proverbial tortoise. Like everybody else I have been sending messages to my friends (both Indians and others) how this time is for real and how they should all move here. That is until I read two articles (one in the Financial Times and one in the Wall Street Journal) which brought me down to earth.

The Financial Times article was about how farmers in Punjab ( the bread basket of India ) were committing suicide at a alarmingly high rate, because of high debt incurred due to the high cost of inputs required to increase yields to earn a decent living off the land.

At the same time there has been concern about the seepage of pesticides into the ground water and the land getting exhausted due to the increasing use of fertilizers.

Ironically this at the time when the government is providing free electricity to the farmers to irrigate the land and the subsidies on fertilizers are continuing to blow a hole in the governments budget.In addition, the government has just finished a loan forgiveness program for small farmers.

Punjab is not the only one. Over the last two years there have been other articles about farmers in other prosperous states also taking their lives due to their inability to live off the land and repay their debt. Last year’s drought made the situation worse.

The Wall Street Journals article was about how drought is creating a similar situation in Yunnan province. The drought in Southern China is supposed to be the worst in the last 80 to 100 years. While the situation is bad the farmers have fortunately not had to resort to the desperate measures as their Indian counterparts,they face a similar problem in their inability to pay pack their debts..

Over the years because of the growing population, the size of the farm holdings has been on a declining trend. In the sixties India was saved by the Green Revolution.The high yielding crops and excessive use of fertilizers led to production going up significantly. It has reached a situation where India was exporting food crops. China experimented with collective farming, but as is now apparent it has not been terribly successful.

Over the next decades the situation is likely to get worse. The growth in population, the exhaustion of the land due to excessive use of fertilizers, land devoted to agriculture getting reduced as urbanization continues at a rapid pace. To cap it all, with the global warming, the glaciers in the mountains which are the sources of the some of the mightiest rivers in the world, will gradually not be able to replenish themselves.

At this time the focus of both the countries seems to be to divert the water flow to generate power to feed the hungry furnaces of the steel and cement mills. Not enough attention is being paid to the husbanding of water resources. This is going to lead to tension between the neighbors. Already the neighbors of the two countries are beginning to make noises. This is going to get worse.

The 1800’s and the early 1900’s was the race of commodities among the western countries plus Japan. The second half of this century is going to be the race (without trying to sound alarmist and saying wars) will be about water. These issues need to be addressed and agreements fair to everyone, taking the long term view should be entered into now !!

Monday, April 5, 2010

Its Cricket,no its Bollywood, no its Business - NO Its The IPL !!!

Over the centuries, India has not only exported but also absorbed the cultures, religions and languages of the invaders and made it part of the Indian culture. The latest such transformation is the English game of cricket.

The once gentlemanly game played on the fields of the English public schools and village greens was brought to India by the British. Spread over three to five days, it was played at a leisurely pace with breaks for lunch, tea and lemonade.

Watching the Indian Premier League's version of cricket with American cheerleaders ( the original from the U S of A probably with blonde's from Eastern Europe thrown in),the frequent blare of trumpets and steel drums ,flag waving by Bollywood stars and starlets, performance's by Lionel Riche and imitation ABBA rock group , you might be forgiven if you feel that you are on LSD and watching cricket on fast forward.

To show that it is not just a game but has big money behind it, the camera's keep focusing on the owners - who are among the biggest business tycoons in India including, the Ambani's, the Malya's, the Wadia's the Burmans and so on.

The stadiums generally with a seating capacity of up to 50,000 packed to the rafters and live broadcast with the highest viewership, overtaking the soap operas and reality shows, it has become the biggest form of entertainment in the space of three short years. Like the ancient Roman's giving a thumbs up, a huge roar goes up every time the home team scores a boundary (four runs) or a six or gets a opposing team member out.

While the Commissioner of IPL Mr. Lalit Modi gets all the credit for making it such a success, the original idea for the Indian Cricket League was that of Subash Chandra of Zee TV . He thought he would do in India what Kerry Packer did in Australia by shortening the matches to one day including night cricket, but he was outfoxed by the willy old members of BCCI, who forbade any cricketer from joining ICL.Also instead of trying to have it all to themselves, they brought in the big bucks.Zee didn't stand a chance and ICL is now history.

While IPL enables the cricketers from all over the world to make a lot of money within the short space of six weeks or so during which it is played, it has also democratized cricket. While this started a bit earlier, it has accelerated. No longer confined to the upper middle class from the larger metropolitan cities, you have cricketing stars from small towns all over India. Playing as team members with some of the best cricketing talent in the world, it has improved their game as well. Unfortunately with all the attention and the money you have to keep performing or you will get your fifteen minutes of fame and disappear.This will also shorten the life span of the senior cricketers of ten to fifteen years.

With cricket in India now being the largest revenue generator for the International Cricket Council, what will follow next ? Attention is now being paid to soccer, hockey and even basketball, but it is going to require a lot of effort to unseat IPL in the short run.While some say cricket is next to religion in India, in my view
cricket is religion with the reigning deity being Sachin Tendulkar . It unifies all races and religions in India like no other game or event. Jai Ho!!

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Changing Role of Women in India

The Government recently introduced a bill in Parliament which would reserve approximately one third of the seats for women. While it was supported by two of the opposition parties , the BJP and the Leftist, it ran into resistance from some of the smaller regional parties. This was ironical since the leaders have a number of their own female family members standing for election at the state or central level.

Additionally some question the need for the introduction of such a bill since a woman is the President of the country Mrs. Prathiba Patil.Sonia Gandhi - the head of the ruling party Congress is regularly voted as the most powerful person in India.Her Mother-in-law, Mrs. Indra Gandhi after the Bangladesh war was shown on the cover of magazines as " The Empress of India ".

Further two regional politicians Mayawati and Jayalalitha have taken on the males in two of the most male dominated bastion states and succeeded. Then you have Brinda Karat the wife of the leader of Leftist Party and a active politician in her own right, who is at the best at haranguing the Government about the American bogey man.

Women are making an impact in the business world as well. The heads of HSBC, JP Morgan, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, the CEO of Britannia biscuits are a few of the many successful professionals.

On the owner managed business, those days are gone where the male member of the family participated in the management of the business. The princesses at Parle and HCL are two of the many women who are actively involved in the running of the family business.

On the entrepreneurial side, you have Kiran Mazumdar who started the leading bio-technology company in India and is a icon . Also there are hundreds of women entrepreneurs who might not have made it as big as Ms.Mazumdar but run smallish businesses successfully. I am aware of at least four . One started a Indian spicy pickle business in her garage ( shades of Hewlett- Packard, Steve jobs) and now has a established brand in North India and supplies to Walmart's operations in India. Another has a fashion accessories business supplying to chains in the UK. A friend runs a garment manufacturing business exporting to Europe and the last one's husband a IIT graduate who gave up his job to support his wife,who has a successful traditional Indian styled garments supplying to boutiques and organizing trunk shows overseas. The list of Indian billionaires includes Mrs. Kokila Ambani, Mrs.Savitiri Jindal and Mrs. Indu Jain.

While there are thousands of Indian actresses, it is rare to see a woman behind the camera, although they have been a few including Aparna Sen,Leena Yadav,Nandita Sen and others on the domestic scene. Gurinder Chadha, Meera Niar and Deepa Mehta are among the women who have made it on their own outside ( or perhaps because of it )of Bollywood. ( Yes, I know you will quibble that they might not be Indian citizens etc).

All that is good news, but on the other hand,honor killing ,female infanticide, lack of women education are just some of the many reasons why the Government felt the need to strengthen women's rights.

Two of the most prosperous states Punjab and Haryana have a skewered male: female ratio as a result of female as a result of sex selection during pregnancy.. This is forcing men to seek brides from other states. Hundred steps backwards for equal rights for women, but one tiny step for national integration. Hopefully these men will not repeat the mistakes of their fathers.

I could go on and on,but it is now pleasing to see the government making a strong determined effort to raise the level of women participation not just at the legislative level, but also at the village community management level - gram panchyat by having at least 50% of the seats for women. It is generally felt that by having women, there will be more attention paid to woman's education, health and hygiene, and hopefully reduce corruption. This should raise the quality of life overall at the rural level - Jai Ho !!!