Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Will The Elephant Dance With The Dragon And The Lion (Tiger) In The Year Of The Snake ?

April was a good month for India from a neighborly relationship point of view. Its two difficult neighbors both went through a change of governments.  In China  after a  decade, a change of leaders happened in late 2012. Xi Jinping was elected as President and Li Keqiang  as Prime Minister. In Pakistan for the first time in its history, a duly elected government served its full term and a new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was elected. Will this mean that India's relationship with China and Pakistan turn over a new leaf ? The initial signs seem encouraging.

Li Keqiqng  made India his  first overseas stop. Apparently this is to stress the importance which China lays on its relationship with its giant neighbor. Li had previously been to India as part of a youth delegation and had pleasant memories. Unlike other Chinese leaders ( and our own Prime Minister ) Prime Minister Li  came across as approachable, and made an effort to cultivate the Indians and the media. He said all the right things, about wanting to expand the relationships between the two ancient civilizations. At the same time he acknowledged that history had left behind certain issues which had to be dealt with.

On the other side of the border, the newly elected Nawaz Sharif during his election campaign and after, spoke repeatedly about his desire to improve Pakistan's relationship with India. The Indian Prime Minister Manmmohan Singh suitably  blew him  kisses across the border. Ironically, Nawaz Sharif family was from the Amritsar district and went across the border. Manmohan Singh's family on the other hand came across from Pakistan and settled in Amritsar.

While friendly comments are made by all parties, there are skeptics in India with long memories  who would advise Manmohan Singh to tread with caution. Just about a month before Li's visit, a contingent of the  Peoples Liberation Army  crossed  eighteen kilometers  into Indian territory, pitched their tents and refused to go back. They finally did  just a few days before the Prime Minister's visit and after India apparently  dismantled " a few tin sheds". Inexplicably the Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid made some comments comparing India to Muhamad Ali - I assume  in its ability to " float like a butterfly and sting like a bee." Will the lumbering elephant be able to float like a butterfly ?However in  the sixties, while the Indian Prime Minister was chanting Hindi-Chini bhai bhai, it was the dragon who flew across and landed  a knock out  punch to the elephant.

Similarly Prime Minister Vajpayee visited Pakistan and had a love fest with  Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. In the mean time unbeknownst to Sharif, the Pakistan Army Chief then decided to launch a military expedition against India which almost brought both countries to war.

Will all these positive noises now being  made by India's neighbor lead to better relationships ? Tongue in cheek, and perhaps stretching an analogy, I would say it might be possible.India's birth as a Republic was on the Twenty Sixth of January which was the Year of the Ox.. According to the Chinese Zodiac signs those born under the OX sign will have a good year in the Year of the Snake. So perhaps this will be the year where India's neighbors will make more of an effort to develop a broader relationship with us.Certainly based on previous responses there will be no hesitation on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's part .This is the only remaining chance for him to leave behind a positive legacy and at least be remembered as the person who made peace with Pakistan and China. That itself would be quite an achievement and who knows might yet win him a Noble Peace Prize nomination !!!