In my blog of September 15th,2011, I had said "Be careful what you wished for " about the Middle- East.(http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/09/be-careful-what-you-wish-for.html).
The West had always wanted change in that region. Now that change has come, perhaps this is not what they had anticipated. Unfortunately the real world rarely works according to the plans laid out by America's political strategists.While some of the countries have been able to remove their dictators, they have been left with anarchy and chaos.
Iraq has an elected government, but continues to be riven by sectarian violence, between different religious groups and other vested interests. Libya is in a state of confusion. In Syria you have had civil war for over a year. Dislodging Assad has not been as simple a task as expected. There is no unified opposition. Assad is supported by his tribe members, the Hizbollah and Iran, not to mention political support from Russia ( with arms ) and China. At of now, Assad seems far from ready to throw in the towel. If he survives, he is going to remember who his friends and foes were and could retaliate.
Egypt might have gotten rid of Hosni Mubarak, but the elected government headed by the Muslim Brotherhood tried to enforce their grip too soon, and scared off the more secular sections of the populace, providing an opportunity for the Army to step in once again "in order to provide stability ". Daily killings of hundreds of people are being reported, but the Muslim Brotherhood supporters are not backing off . How long this stalemate is going to last is unknown. In the meantime the West is wringing its hands, not knowing what to do. They wanted democracy. The country had free elections, however the party which came into power was not to their liking. Now they are back to square one again with the army in control. Do you get a feeling of déjà vu ?
While most of the royal states have wisely kept their heads down, there are a few wealthy ones taking sides. They seem to be treading on dangerous grounds. In the medium and long term, depending on how the cards stack up,there could be a back lash and you could have a situation when the Islamist's turn on them. The US has in the last few years become less dependent on oil imports ( see my blog of September 2011 http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/09/back-to-future.html ), and will have to decide which allies it is going to support with boots on the ground. The rest will have to fend for themselves. Do not be surprised if you see more democratic countries emerging over the next couple of decades, after an initial period of turmoil. There is also the likelihood of further sectarian violence as the dominant sects in some of these countries play a repressive role supported by their counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Iraq.
Over the next decade or so you will have countries in the Middle East in a state of turmoil. Will it impact the oil prices ? Much less than it would have a few years ago. Keep watching this space.
The West had always wanted change in that region. Now that change has come, perhaps this is not what they had anticipated. Unfortunately the real world rarely works according to the plans laid out by America's political strategists.While some of the countries have been able to remove their dictators, they have been left with anarchy and chaos.
Iraq has an elected government, but continues to be riven by sectarian violence, between different religious groups and other vested interests. Libya is in a state of confusion. In Syria you have had civil war for over a year. Dislodging Assad has not been as simple a task as expected. There is no unified opposition. Assad is supported by his tribe members, the Hizbollah and Iran, not to mention political support from Russia ( with arms ) and China. At of now, Assad seems far from ready to throw in the towel. If he survives, he is going to remember who his friends and foes were and could retaliate.
Egypt might have gotten rid of Hosni Mubarak, but the elected government headed by the Muslim Brotherhood tried to enforce their grip too soon, and scared off the more secular sections of the populace, providing an opportunity for the Army to step in once again "in order to provide stability ". Daily killings of hundreds of people are being reported, but the Muslim Brotherhood supporters are not backing off . How long this stalemate is going to last is unknown. In the meantime the West is wringing its hands, not knowing what to do. They wanted democracy. The country had free elections, however the party which came into power was not to their liking. Now they are back to square one again with the army in control. Do you get a feeling of déjà vu ?
While most of the royal states have wisely kept their heads down, there are a few wealthy ones taking sides. They seem to be treading on dangerous grounds. In the medium and long term, depending on how the cards stack up,there could be a back lash and you could have a situation when the Islamist's turn on them. The US has in the last few years become less dependent on oil imports ( see my blog of September 2011 http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/09/back-to-future.html ), and will have to decide which allies it is going to support with boots on the ground. The rest will have to fend for themselves. Do not be surprised if you see more democratic countries emerging over the next couple of decades, after an initial period of turmoil. There is also the likelihood of further sectarian violence as the dominant sects in some of these countries play a repressive role supported by their counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Iraq.
Over the next decade or so you will have countries in the Middle East in a state of turmoil. Will it impact the oil prices ? Much less than it would have a few years ago. Keep watching this space.
