Two Similar Countries But Different Paths

In this blog I have  decided to look at two different, but very similar countries - The Philippines and Pakistan. Although they have similar historic socio, cultural, economic structures they started going down different paths in the eighties.

Both are former colonies. Philippines was a colony of Spain and subsequently The United States of America. Pakistan together with Bangladesh and India was part of the British ruled Indian sub-continent.They  have strong ties with the United States.

Pakistan and Philippines both  have a large group of landed feudal aristocracy who protect their economic interests by participating in politics. The seats are dynastic in nature and remain within the family. It could be the Bhuttos, the Mehrs ,the Cojuangcos, or the Magapacals. Surprisingly in these male dominated societies, it is the feudal aristocracy which has produced female leaders who came from similar backgrounds. Corazino Aquino who was from the wealthy Cojuangco family from the Tarlac province, became the President of the Philippines when her husband Benigno “ Ninoy”  Aquino was assassinated. Her son  Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino is now the President. In Pakistan Benazir Bhutto whose family was from the Sindh state inherited the political leadership of the Peoples Party when her Father Zulfiqar Bhutto was hung by General Zia ul Haq. Benazir herself was subsequently assassinated in December 2007.

Religion, be it the church or the mosque, plays an important part in the lives of the majority of the population. In the Philippines, the Catholic Church is active in the education sector through schools and universities. While religion plays an important role in the schools the emphasis is on a well rounded education.  In Pakistan the mosques run the madrassas. While most of them provide decent education, there are some institutions which try and influence the male students politically and encourage them on the jihadist track.

Corruption is an endemic problem in both the countries.Charges were frequently made against the former husband of President Gloria Magapacal's husband. Similarly allegations are made against President Zardari going back to the  days when he was the First Husband. 

The armed forces in both the countries play a very important role. It provides an alternative path to the top for individuals who do not belong to the land owning class or the business families. The armies have at various instances taken it upon themselves to take over the ruling of the country.

In both the countries you have a small group of business families who control a large portion of the GDP. They dabble in politics directly or indirectly by having the politicians in their pockets. In Pakistan the Sharif brothers who come from a business background are the leaders of the opposition party and effectively dominate the state of Punjab. They have a better relationship with the senior Army officers since a large number of them tend to be from the same state.

Because of the state of their economies both the countries are heavily dependent on their overseas workers for a sizable portion of the foreign exchange earnings. In Pakistan these tends to be predominantly male, whereas in the Philippines it tends to be of both sexes.

Regional insurgencies continue to be a thorn in the side for both countries. In the Philippines after the war , these included the HUK movement, the PKP and more recently the New Peoples Army. It also has the Muslim insurgents such the Moro faction and the Abu Sayyaf group. In Pakistan over the years there have been different groups, with the most recent being the militants in the Swat valley loyal to Mullah Fazlullah  and the  Baluchi movement lead by the disgruntled tribal chiefs among others.

However the countries went down different paths in the eighties. In both, the religious leaders played a major role or heavily influenced the politicians in the decision they made.

In the Philippines, the Church lead by Cardinal Sin lead the country in seeing off the dictator Ferdinand Marcos and down the  path of democracy. The Church still plays an important role.  No politician can afford to offend it  if he wants to get elected Since then there have been a number of feeble attempts by the military to regain its role, but the civilian government has been dominant.

In Pakistan without a single religious leader being able to play a leading role, General Zia Ul Huq took it upon himself to take the country down the Islamic path. The civilian governments have been given a number of opportunities to run the country but inevitably the military has had to intervene. It continues to play a dominant role behind the scene and influences the decisions of the civilian government. It also decided to go down the nuclear path - to keep up with India.

The reason for the change in the role of the army in both the countries is perhaps because of their history and their geographic location and it also reflect on the spending on military. In the Philippines it accounts for 0.9% of the GDP and in Pakistan it officially  accounts for over 3% of its GDP.

The Philippines  is on friendly terms with all its neighbors, and the role of the army seems to be restricted to dealing with internal insurgencies. Over the years they seemed to have considerable success in this area.

Pakistan however has fought three wars with its giant neighbor. It has seen its country split with the creation of Bangladesh .It is concerned about further splits and its armed forces feel that if it lets its guard down it will be dominated by India. As a result it also developed nuclear capability.

Also Pakistan was used as a proxy by the United States in getting Russia out of Afghanistan without getting directly involved. This rag tag bunch of Pashtun guerrillas viewed this as an Islamic Jihad and are supported both physically and financially by the Islamic fundamentalists from the Middle East. After the ouster of the Russians, the guerrillas morphed into the Taliban and seized power in Afghanistan which became a safe haven for the Al-Qaeda while they wreaked havoc in various parts of the world.

The Army in turn directly and indirectly, has also been using this  and its various splinter groups as an unofficial guerrilla arm, to disrupt and create havoc in India and as a vehicle to be able to control its other neighbor Afghanistan which they feel is in their back yard and which  they should be able to dominate. Of recent, some of these splinter groups have begun to bring the war into their own homes by suicide bombers targeting not just other religious minorities, but other Muslim sects including Shias, Ahmadis, and even their own religious or political leaders who preach a path of tolerance. Their nuclear capability also acts as a deterrent for foreign interference and forces the Western powers to treat Pakistan with kid gloves. These Islamist unable to get the numbers during elections rely on terror tactics to get their way.

With the recent events in the Middle East  and  the movement towards democracy , it will be interesting to see from a long term perspective as to how it impacts Pakistan. These countries are beginning to look inwards and towards protecting their own regimes rather than supporting the overseas militants. In the meantime Philippines seems well entrenched on its democratic path and its new President Benigno Aquino appears to be determined to root out corruption.
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Its All In The Implemention

A few weeks ago while responding to questions on the 2 G spectrum scam, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the right policy was in  place, but the problem was in the  implementation. Perhaps unintended but he hit the nail right on the head.

The fast by Ana  Hazare has caught the  people's imagination and the Jan Lokpal Bill  is being held up as the magic cure for the corruption which prevails in our society. Unfortunately the problem is not that there is a shortage of laws, the problem is in the implementation or enforcement.

As I mentioned in one of my earliest blogs, we follow the laws when we go abroad, but do not do so when are in India because we know we can get away with it. A simple example  is paying  a traffic ticket. Rather than paying the full penalty we offer one quarter or half the amount to the concerned constable and drive off. We are all guilty of that. I doubt if there are too many of us who can put our hands on the hearts and say I did. Sometime the rules are skewed such that you tend to take the easy way out. Its not a question of the amount of the ticket involved.  In most countries you can just mail in a check for the  ticket. Here at least in Delhi, you are required to appear before a court. Do you want to waste a day finding the right court and then pleading guilty to pay the fine ? You pay the constable. We all  have our reasons for doing so.

Similarly even if the Lokpal Bill is passed ,we still rely on the the government investigators or prosecutors to bring the guilty party justice. The official track record in persecuting politicians and bureaucrats  does not necessarily inspire  a great deal of confidence. Cases drag on for years and files  mysteriously disappear. The witnesses pass away,  some of old age, others due to  health  reason and some  choose to end their lives.

Narayana Murthy the former Chairman of Infosys suggested in the newspaper of April 9th, that the Central Ivestigation Bureau  and Central Vigilance Commission should also report to Lokpal and not to the government.Also that it should not just be restricted to just  going after the politicians, but should also include the bureaucrats. This is the only way to make this effective. 

Hopefully the Lokpal Bill addresses this issue, otherwise all this effort will have been in vain.

Observations On Riding the Lift In Gurgaon

My office is on the fourteenth  floor of a high rise office building  in Gurgaon. The occupants tend to be  a mix of  multinational, (American,  European, Korean, Japanese) and Indian companies. Over the last few years I have been riding the lift ( elevators) up and down at least three four times a day and it is interesting to see the social interaction in the short time you reach your floor.
 
Reflecting the population  demographics most of my fellow passengers  tend to be young ( by my definition that's under forty). with a slight majority of males. The offices they work for tend to be names such as Reebok, Hays Consulting, Lowes/Linta,some technology companies and a Hong Kong based  buying company.

At five feet seven and a half inches  ( my wife  insists its seven and three eights) I thought I was average or slightly above, but standing next to the males, I positively  feel short. The younger Indian male tends to be getting bigger, not just in terms of height , but also around the middle. At the rate we are going, India in a few decades will catch up with The United States and South Africa in terms of adult obesity. The woman however tend to be considerably shorter and  the younger ones slimmer.

The back pack is the new office accessory . Very rarely do you see anyone carrying a briefcase.What I find most annoying is when the person standing in front of you with  a back pack  strung across  his shoulders starts backing into you and  his huge bag pack pushes  into your chest. You try to gently push back but when that does not work you have to tap the individual concerned and tell him to stop pushing. While most accept that you have a occasional person who stares at you  and you have to respond.

Sometimes you are standing in a crowded  lift and suddenly  you  hear a  loud Muni Badnam Hoi, or Sheila Ki Jawani, or a Om Hari Om, or a  Wahe Guru Sat Nam.You get disoriented for a split second, until the person next to you reaches into his pocket takes out his cell phone and starts a loud conversation with his wife,mother, business associate, boss or supplier with no attempt at keeping his voice soft.On occasion when he is talking, his other phone rings.

The riders who get  in on the floor where one of the largest property companies in India has its marketing office are a study in contrasts. Some of them enter  with a triumphant look on their face, which means that they finally been able to get possession of the flat. The others look depressed with an expression of anger and frustration, meaning that they have been told once again that the delivery of the  property for which they have paid fully years ago,  is going to be delayed yet again for the nth time.

The worst time to get in the lift is right after lunch in summers.It is crowded with sweaty bodies  and you have  someone's pot belly pushing into your back. You can have a pretty good guess as to what he had for lunch as he breathes down your neck and occasionally belches.

At times  you  have a person or a group complaining about a boss or a colleague with no attempt to speak softly or not mentioning the persons name. In our time we were a bit more discrete .

With increasing prosperity you see examples of one upmanship. Once a working couple ( probably in their mid thirties ) got in together with some colleagues. It was the sale season. The couple mentioned that they were not  going to the Armani boutique sale ( I did not know there was one in Delhi) , because " everyone is wearing Armani". I looked down at my  tee shirt - it  had the Giordano frog !!!

The Koreans, Chinese and Japanese talk to their own group, unlike the Americans or Europeans. I have  rarely have seen them talking to their local colleagues.

Depending on the time of the day , the lift stops on many floors, but my favorite stop is when the lift doors open on the thirteen floor. It is where the Hong Kong based William Connors office is and you see them packing samples of goods to be sent to Ikea, or William Sanoma, or The Pottery Barn.Some of them are quite interesting. I have made a number of attempts to buy an occasional item but without any success.

Finally in closing I have to say the younger generation all seem to have a lot more attitude and confidence in their mannerisms, their behavior and their speech ( might not be grammatically correct English, but spoken with confidence ) you know that they are sure of themselves and in their own skin. This is what New India is all about - the blending  of the Indian and  the West.