Call me a oil and gas bull, but the recent discovery and step up in exploration of shale reserves, the fields in Africa and the step up in the melting Arctic, oil and gas, in particular the latter, will continue to play a major role in energy consumption over the next hundred years. Will this be the death knell of alternative energy in the long run ?
The rise of the alternative energy was dependent on the increasing cost of oil due to depleting reserves. Also concern about climate change , but if prices had remained as they were in the sixties there would have been very little interest in alternative energy. Predictions were made that the world was going to be running out energy. Alternative energy sources such as nuclear energy, solar power, wind power and hydro electric power, were all being touted as the next big thing. Variations of these are wave based energy , offshore wind mills and the like , but they are unlikely to reach commercial production stages.
There have been numerous nuclear accidents which have happened over the years. You can Google "nuclear energy accidents " and you will find a long list.The well known ones include the Washington Public Power Supply System in the United States, Chernobyl in the USSR, and Fukushima recently in Japan. Incidentally it was not the first time Fukushima had a problem.In 1978.also it some problems. As a result of this both Germany and Japan , major producers of nuclear energy have decided to gradually close down all nuclear based power generation. India in the meantime appears to be the odd man out by continuing to tout increased nuclear production.
Based on my limited knowledge of solar power, one of the problems of the solar panels appears to be the efficiency rate and the overall costs. While countries such as China and Germany have been subsidizing solar generation, to increase the volume of production of solar panels, the manufacturers are going through a rough time. In the meantime solar panel farms are being set up in deserts in many countries, but overall contribution to total energy remains extremely modest .
Wind power off course continues to considered as another alternative, but with strong winds needed and large areas required,these are likely to be in remote areas and grids and transmission lines built to be able to bring the power to urban areas.
Hydro-electricity generating stations are being built but to scale them to sufficient size, huge dams have to be built which leads to the relocation of population and destruction of environment, as was the case during the Three Gorges project in China , probably the largest such attempt.
This is not to imply that oil and gas production is without environment risk. Traditional oil drilling including deep sea offshore production has been going on for decades and yes there have been accidents, but not on the scale or the consequences of a nuclear melt down in Chernobyl or Fukushima.
Also the long term consequences of new fracking technology use for shale production remains to be seen. There have been reports of it causing minor earthquakes. In addition the large use of water with the possibility of pollution of water sources is obviously a major cause of concern.
However with their deep pockets, their strong lobbying abilities and based on the decades of experience which the oil and gas industry has in resolving problems in difficult terrains, such as Alaska, deep offshore production, sideways drilling, it is likely that they will find means and ways to overcome all of the major hurdles.
Having said all this, it is unlikely that the decline of the alternative energy will start happening next year or next five years, but more likely over the next couple of decades. I could be proven totally wrong and a major fracking accident on the scale of Fukushima could bring the industry to a halt, but if I were a betting man, I would not go short long term on the petroleum industry.
The rise of the alternative energy was dependent on the increasing cost of oil due to depleting reserves. Also concern about climate change , but if prices had remained as they were in the sixties there would have been very little interest in alternative energy. Predictions were made that the world was going to be running out energy. Alternative energy sources such as nuclear energy, solar power, wind power and hydro electric power, were all being touted as the next big thing. Variations of these are wave based energy , offshore wind mills and the like , but they are unlikely to reach commercial production stages.
There have been numerous nuclear accidents which have happened over the years. You can Google "nuclear energy accidents " and you will find a long list.The well known ones include the Washington Public Power Supply System in the United States, Chernobyl in the USSR, and Fukushima recently in Japan. Incidentally it was not the first time Fukushima had a problem.In 1978.also it some problems. As a result of this both Germany and Japan , major producers of nuclear energy have decided to gradually close down all nuclear based power generation. India in the meantime appears to be the odd man out by continuing to tout increased nuclear production.
Based on my limited knowledge of solar power, one of the problems of the solar panels appears to be the efficiency rate and the overall costs. While countries such as China and Germany have been subsidizing solar generation, to increase the volume of production of solar panels, the manufacturers are going through a rough time. In the meantime solar panel farms are being set up in deserts in many countries, but overall contribution to total energy remains extremely modest .
Wind power off course continues to considered as another alternative, but with strong winds needed and large areas required,these are likely to be in remote areas and grids and transmission lines built to be able to bring the power to urban areas.
Hydro-electricity generating stations are being built but to scale them to sufficient size, huge dams have to be built which leads to the relocation of population and destruction of environment, as was the case during the Three Gorges project in China , probably the largest such attempt.
This is not to imply that oil and gas production is without environment risk. Traditional oil drilling including deep sea offshore production has been going on for decades and yes there have been accidents, but not on the scale or the consequences of a nuclear melt down in Chernobyl or Fukushima.
Also the long term consequences of new fracking technology use for shale production remains to be seen. There have been reports of it causing minor earthquakes. In addition the large use of water with the possibility of pollution of water sources is obviously a major cause of concern.
However with their deep pockets, their strong lobbying abilities and based on the decades of experience which the oil and gas industry has in resolving problems in difficult terrains, such as Alaska, deep offshore production, sideways drilling, it is likely that they will find means and ways to overcome all of the major hurdles.
Having said all this, it is unlikely that the decline of the alternative energy will start happening next year or next five years, but more likely over the next couple of decades. I could be proven totally wrong and a major fracking accident on the scale of Fukushima could bring the industry to a halt, but if I were a betting man, I would not go short long term on the petroleum industry.
