You Dont Always Get What You Want !!!

In my blog of September 15th,2011, I had said "Be careful what you wished for " about the Middle- East.(http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/09/be-careful-what-you-wish-for.html).

The West had always wanted change in that region. Now that change has come, perhaps this is not what they had anticipated. Unfortunately the real world rarely  works according to the plans laid out by America's political strategists.While some of the countries have been able to remove their dictators, they have been left  with anarchy and chaos.

Iraq has an elected government, but continues to be riven by sectarian violence, between  different religious groups and other vested interests. Libya is in a state of confusion. In Syria you have  had civil war for over  a year. Dislodging Assad has not been as simple a task as expected. There is no unified opposition. Assad is supported by his tribe members, the Hizbollah and  Iran, not to mention political support from Russia ( with arms ) and China. At of now, Assad seems far from ready to throw in the towel. If he survives, he is going to remember who his friends and foes were and could  retaliate.

Egypt might have gotten rid of Hosni Mubarak, but the elected government headed by the Muslim Brotherhood tried to enforce their grip too soon, and scared off the more secular sections of the populace, providing an opportunity for the Army to step in once again "in order to provide stability ". Daily killings  of hundreds of people are being reported, but the Muslim Brotherhood supporters are not backing off . How long this stalemate is going to last is unknown. In the meantime the West is wringing its hands, not knowing what to do. They wanted democracy. The country had free elections, however the party which came into power was not to their liking. Now they are back to square one again with the army in control. Do you get a feeling of  déjà vu ?


While most of the royal states have wisely kept their heads down, there are a few wealthy ones taking sides. They seem to  be treading on dangerous grounds. In the medium and long term, depending on how the cards stack up,there  could be  a back lash and you could have a situation when the Islamist's turn on them. The US has in the last few years become  less dependent on oil imports ( see my blog of September 2011 http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2011/09/back-to-future.html ), and will have to decide which allies it is going to support with boots on the ground. The rest will have to fend for themselves. Do not be surprised if you see  more democratic countries emerging over the next couple of decades, after an initial period of turmoil. There is also the likelihood of further  sectarian violence as  the dominant sects  in some of these countries  play a repressive role  supported by their counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Iran and Iraq.

Over the next decade or so you will have countries in the  Middle East in a state of turmoil. Will it impact the oil prices ? Much  less than it would have a few years ago. Keep watching this space. 

America vs. India

I was just viewing the latest issue of the Economist ( August 10th)on my I phone, and looked at the section on The United States. Of the seven headers, except for one, I was amazed about how both countries were dealing with similar issues.

The first  "No  speaks", had a sub-heading of " Barrack Obama's patience runs short " and continued to talk about whether America can do business with Vladimir Putin ? Sounds like India's relationship with Pakistan , particularly with the recent killing by the Pakistan soldiers.Every time the Pakistan politicians make noises about wanting to mend fences, the Army puts a spanner in the works to make sure it does not happen.

The second "Just a little local difficulty " talks about the sexual misbehavior and the questionable business transactions by the Mayor of San Diego. You could pick many our local Municipal Corporation Heads or even the Chief Ministers and you probably would be able to levy the same charges.

"Gifts galore", the third one talks about the Governor of Virginia accepting gifts from some questionable corporate head and that it was small beer compared to the corruption of  the governors of Illinois and Louisiana, who were serving jail time. The only difference in India is that none of the Chief Ministers would  be charged, leave alone serve time.

"No play , no pay", talks about the financial mess  the state of  Illinois is, with large unfunded pension liabilities among other things. In India present liabilities ( budget deficits ) does not prevent the Chief Ministers from handing out free electricity to farmers , free lap tops to students,subsidies for gas used for home cooking which is used primarily in the urban areas.

"We will get them next year" is about the rampant drug use in baseball. While there have been no incidents of drug use among Indian cricketers, the match fixing and misuse of the sporting bodies, continues to be a problem.

"Keeping the mighty honest" writes about how the concern that " the new wave of press barons should not allow newspapers to become niche products". India is one of the few countries where newspaper circulation continues to increase. However a few years ago, taped telephone conversations revealed the close nexus between prominent journalists and the politicians, and how mutual back scratching helped each other out.


 Is it any wonder that Indian do well in the United States ?
 

The Supreme Court Broom Cleans Up The Legislature

On July 3rd a bench of The Supreme Court of India decided that it was unconstitutional for  Members of Parliament and Members of Legislative Assembly at the state level to continue as lawmakers, and that they should be immediately barred from attending the House.

You would have thought that this was a oxymoron that a law breaker would be setting in the Assembly making laws, when he or she is convicted.However  in 1951, when Jawahar Lal Nehru was the first Prime Minister,  the lawmakers decided to include a clause,Section 8 (4) of the Representation of the People Act that allowed convicted lawmakers to continue  attending,  provided they filed an appeal  to the higher court within three months to get a stay of the conviction. As a result you had a situation where according to the Financial Times, you had 162 out of the 543 elected Members of Parliament had criminal cases against them. Similarly according to the Press Trust of India at the state legislative level you had 1,258 out of 4,032 sitting lawmaker facing criminal cases, roughly about 30 percent.

 According to the Economic Times of July 14-20,2013details of the cases against our so called "leaders" are as follows:

1460 MPs & MlAs who have declared criminal cases against themselves in their affidavits submitted against themselves.

688 MPs & MLAs who have declared serious criminal cases against themselves

162 Lok Sabha MPs who face criminal cases

1,258 MLAs from all states assemblies who face criminal cases

74% share of MLAs of 2009 Jharkhand Assembly who face criminal cases , the highest in the country

31% share of MPs & MlAs or the Bharatia Janata Party who face criminal cases

 21%share of Congress MPs &  MLAs who face criminal cases

A concern is now being raised by the politicians that frivolous cases may be filed against them in friendly courts which would lead to their disbarment. Perhaps the lawmakers will now  better appreciate how the common public feels when they are faced by intimidation by the bureaucrats and  cases linger on for decades.

Hopefully the Supreme Court broom will continue on its mission to clean up the politics of the  country.

Does Urbanisation End Discrimination ?

Two recent reads made me think again how the United States and India are similar. " The Warmth of Other Suns" by Isabel Wilkerson which won the numerous awards ,is a fascinating book which tracks a few African Americans  who migrated from America's deep south to New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. Most of them were bright and educated but had to flee because of a lack of opportunities and constantly fearing fearing for their lives from the whites.  The other read was a  news item in the Hindu newspaper of June 24th, which mentioned about a boy from a lower caste who had passed the entrance examination for the Indian Institute of Technology- which has a lower acceptance rate than MIT or Harvard. The article quoted him as saying  “I am the only one in my neighborhood to study this far, but no one knows that I have cleared the IIT entrance. I have not made it known in my village, as life would be made difficult for me and my family by persons from the dominant caste " In both cases the superior " caste" wanted to ensure its economic status was not threatened even if it meant resorting to life threatening violence.

The race discrimination in America did not end with the Civil War when the slaves were emancipated. It took another century for it to formally end through legislation and through non-violent means. However prior to that with the growing urban developments of manufacturing and business hubs on the Northeast, West Coast and the Midwest, the smart , talented, educated and gifted blacks were provided an opportunity  to move to the cities where they were able to live free from fear. From the early 1900's to the 1970's approximately seven million blacks moved out of the South. While not totally free from discrimination, they were able to pursue jobs and careers which helped them climb the economic ladder. The case studies from the book track the life of a doctor, a train conductor and factory worker, and how they ended up with a better life than if they had stayed on in Mississippi or Florida or in other Southern States.

If Hitler had won the war we would have witnessed a global race/caste system in place with the "Aryans" at the top.In India, centuries ago some one with a similar mind set set up a caste system which still exists today.
There is a pyramid of castes with the Brahmins ( or the priestly caste) right at the top, followed by the Kshatriyas ( rulers/warriors), Vaisyas ( traders/merchants),Sudras (unskilled worker) and the Pariah/Dalits/Harijans ( untouchables) being at the bottom of the heap. According to a National Geographic article there were about 160 million " untouchables" in India. The discrimination they faced was no less  than that of the blacks in America. They lived and to some extent still do, " in constant fear of being publicly humiliated, paraded naked, beaten, and raped with impunity by upper-caste Hindus seeking to keep them in their place. Merely walking through an upper-caste neighborhood is a life-threatening offense". This occurs despite  the fact that untouchability is banned in India's constitution.

In a pattern similar to that of the United States, partly with the equivalent of the affirmative actions implemented by the government,  the smarter of the untouchables  like the successful IIT entrant , are using education to move out of the villages  to cities.With the growing urbanization , which has picked up pace over the last two decades and is likely to accelerate, there is starting to be a gradual shift of the "untouchables" to the urban areas where  discrimination is less of an issue. This in turn is leading to a shortage of cheap labor in the rural areas, where the upper caste is now forced to work in the fields, or pay the lower caste a higher salary and treat them with respect.

In America it took another fifty years after the legislation was passed  for an African American to be elected President, although some would argue that discrimination is not totally dead. In India even though  we have had a President K R Narayanan , a Dalit from Kerala , who served in the Indian Foreign Service,  discrimination  is still a problem, particularly in the rural areas. This after almost 50 years of  independence. Hopefully now as the country goes through rapid urbanization, we will see the decline of caste discrimination.

The Armidillo Indian

Indians are universally known  to be argumentative. Amartya Sen the Noble Prize winner has written a book called The Argumentative Indian.Since Independence we seem to have gone through a evolutionary process through which we have physically developed a thick skin where all criticism, insults , ridicule just bounce off . As a result , it would perhaps be appropriate to classify such Indians as the Armadillo Indian.

Leading the pack are the politicians. Over the last five years, almost every week, the print media and the twenty four television new channels  have been full of the scandal of the week. They are  about politicians caught womanising ( a mid- eighties figure with three women in bed),politicians  caught on tape having sexual relations, politicians and bureaucrats flashed across screens accepting money or  inciting riots. Yet when confronted, they  blandly deny that it was them, that the tapes have been doctored or they have been mis-quoted. The media plays it up for a few days and then drops it . The politicians continue as if nothing has happened.

Unfortunately it is not just limited to the politicians. Of late sport administrators ( who probably have never played any sport in their lives ,but now control all sporting associations ) in addition to politicians ,including  former bureaucrats, influential business men, all seem to have developed a armadillo type leathery armor shell. The Commonwealth Games threw up its fair share of administrators ,who in spite of intense coverage and actually spending time in jail, refused to resign .

The latest is  the head of the cricket administration  for India , which has a strong influence on cricket world wide, now refusing to resign. This in spite of the intense coverage in print and television and people from all walks of life asking him to go. The executive committee members which include prominent politicians who do not hesitate to cast personal insults and demand the resignation of the Prime Minister, kept quiet. They then say that the best solution was to  gently nudge the individual concerned to temporarily step aside for a short period. The interim administrator who  has been brought back in to manage the shop was apparently  previously expelled from the cricket board for embezzlement.

This reminds me of a scandal from the sixties in the United Kingdom. The then British Secretary of  State for War, John Profumo  was named in a sex scandal.. While he initially tried to brazen it out, he ultimately resigned. According to Wikipedia , he then spent the next few decades cleaning toilets at Tonybee Hall , a charity in East End of London He was ultimately rehabilitated and recognized.

I wonder how many of our politicians, bureaucrats, business men would voluntarily suffer such a penance ?
Probably none,because their armadillo shell ensures that all criticism just bounces off and nothing affects them.  

Will The Elephant Dance With The Dragon And The Lion (Tiger) In The Year Of The Snake ?

April was a good month for India from a neighborly relationship point of view. Its two difficult neighbors both went through a change of governments.  In China  after a  decade, a change of leaders happened in late 2012. Xi Jinping was elected as President and Li Keqiang  as Prime Minister. In Pakistan for the first time in its history, a duly elected government served its full term and a new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was elected. Will this mean that India's relationship with China and Pakistan turn over a new leaf ? The initial signs seem encouraging.

Li Keqiqng  made India his  first overseas stop. Apparently this is to stress the importance which China lays on its relationship with its giant neighbor. Li had previously been to India as part of a youth delegation and had pleasant memories. Unlike other Chinese leaders ( and our own Prime Minister ) Prime Minister Li  came across as approachable, and made an effort to cultivate the Indians and the media. He said all the right things, about wanting to expand the relationships between the two ancient civilizations. At the same time he acknowledged that history had left behind certain issues which had to be dealt with.

On the other side of the border, the newly elected Nawaz Sharif during his election campaign and after, spoke repeatedly about his desire to improve Pakistan's relationship with India. The Indian Prime Minister Manmmohan Singh suitably  blew him  kisses across the border. Ironically, Nawaz Sharif family was from the Amritsar district and went across the border. Manmohan Singh's family on the other hand came across from Pakistan and settled in Amritsar.

While friendly comments are made by all parties, there are skeptics in India with long memories  who would advise Manmohan Singh to tread with caution. Just about a month before Li's visit, a contingent of the  Peoples Liberation Army  crossed  eighteen kilometers  into Indian territory, pitched their tents and refused to go back. They finally did  just a few days before the Prime Minister's visit and after India apparently  dismantled " a few tin sheds". Inexplicably the Indian External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid made some comments comparing India to Muhamad Ali - I assume  in its ability to " float like a butterfly and sting like a bee." Will the lumbering elephant be able to float like a butterfly ?However in  the sixties, while the Indian Prime Minister was chanting Hindi-Chini bhai bhai, it was the dragon who flew across and landed  a knock out  punch to the elephant.

Similarly Prime Minister Vajpayee visited Pakistan and had a love fest with  Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. In the mean time unbeknownst to Sharif, the Pakistan Army Chief then decided to launch a military expedition against India which almost brought both countries to war.

Will all these positive noises now being  made by India's neighbor lead to better relationships ? Tongue in cheek, and perhaps stretching an analogy, I would say it might be possible.India's birth as a Republic was on the Twenty Sixth of January which was the Year of the Ox.. According to the Chinese Zodiac signs those born under the OX sign will have a good year in the Year of the Snake. So perhaps this will be the year where India's neighbors will make more of an effort to develop a broader relationship with us.Certainly based on previous responses there will be no hesitation on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's part .This is the only remaining chance for him to leave behind a positive legacy and at least be remembered as the person who made peace with Pakistan and China. That itself would be quite an achievement and who knows might yet win him a Noble Peace Prize nomination !!!

The Indian Dream

Today's Financial Times had a column on how China is loosing a virtual propaganda war.Apparently the bloggers ,the  columnists and the twitterati are doing takes on the new  President Xi Jinping "political strapline" of his  Chinese dream.

It quoted a popular columnist Pan Caifu who wrote " I have a dream that one day I will be able to breathe fresh air, drink water and eat vegetables that aren't poisioned" ... " But these are biological necessities and they are also the most basic rights of human, if we have to "dream" about having to these things, then talking about a China Dream is just a joke"

When ever we have a discussion  about India and China, invariably the retort is that but we are a democracy or that India has law and China has order.

My dream is that I wish it were true. Yes we have the law on the books, and we do have the highest court which operates diligently. However for the majority of the people, the law of "might is right " prevails. When the police refuse to register the cases, or in some cases are the law breakers themselves,or where it might take a life time of frequent visits to the courts,  it is difficult to believe that the justice system works.

We have come a long way economically and regardless of the constant harping, there is economic prosperity and on a daily basis I see examples of trickle down effects ( probably not so much in the rural areas). It is now important that we move to  the next level. 

While no country is perfect and certainly China is not necessarily my role model, I dream of a India

• where the common citizen is treated on par with the rich and  with the politician, 
• where he is able to get the numerous  necessary regulatory approvals without having to continuously grease palms, 
• where he is able to drive on a road which is not pot holed
• where he is not just continously reminded by full page advertisements to pay his taxes, but in turn can   have round the clock  electricity  and water  without having to resort to generators or bore wells
• where he does not have to hire his own security guards
•  where he is not constantly worried whether his  wife, daughter , sister will come home safely
• where there will be enough schools, universities for students who have the ability and desire to get a   a good education

When these things happen I will know that my dream has come true. If not, I certainly  hope and pray that  my children and grand children will see the Indian dream.