As I read the newspapers daily, I am increasingly concerned about what is going on in the world. It is frightening to to see the politicians and the bureaucrats fighting and dithering over decisions which should be made to get the world back on track.But no one appears to be able to do that.
Starting with my own country India we have a well meaning Prime Minister who is the figure head with the real power being vested in the Head of the Congress Party. Perhaps of her recent illness,we are beginning to see the squabbles , first with the coalition partners and now increasingly within the party itself itself. It is no longer limited to junior ministers or party functionaries, but senior figures such as Pranab Mukherjee, PC Chidambran, and Kapil Sabil. You then have have the party mavericks such as Digivijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyar who emerge occasionally to make outrageous soundbites. You get the impression that people are beginning to position themselves for the next term and each trying to do their best to trip up the other.
Unfortunately things are not much better on the Opposition Bench.Under normal circumstances the term the Grand Old Man would apply to a senior figure such as LK Advani but unfortunately his behavior, his outbursts and his continued lust to be the next Prime Minister prevents you from giving him the sobriquet. You then have the other senior leaders such as Narinder Modi ( NaMo) , Sushma Swaraj , Arun Jaitely and others who are now being talked about as potential candidates , assuming of course that the Bharatiya Janata Party emerges with enough votes to be able to form a government . Perhaps the dark horse will be Nitish Kumar from Bihar who might emerge as the acceptable face for the BJP to rule even though he might be only a coalition partner.
In the meantime the country's growth rate has now slowed down to below 8%. The decision making has been paralyzed. Projects are getting delayed .
Pakistan on the other hand continues its games and finally even its closest ally the United States is beginning to say " enough is enough" . In the meantime the leaders both civilian and military continue with the threats to stop the support to the Nato allies in dealing with the Taliban and other terrorist outfits. The trump card which Pakistan holds is the nuclear arsenal.Instead of focusing on the economy the civilian military leaders are running to their all weather friends and allies.
In the Middle East, Israel is gradually getting isolated. The only prediction I will make is that if the Jasmine revolution continues as mentioned in my last blog " Back To The Future " , Beirut and not Dubai will in a few years regain its spot as the financial and fun capital of the Middle East as it was until the seventies.
Meanwhile across in Europe they continue to wring their hands about what to to about Greece ? The Greek sovereign bonds appear to be as radio active as the sub-prime bonds. Here again the banks bought the bonds for their higher yield without doing the due the diligence and relied on the rating agencies. What reinforced their faith to invest in these bonds was the fact that it was issued by a country in the Euro zone and that they would get bailed and they shoveled them into the wagons.. It was different from Iceland which had to bite the bullet and sort out its problems.
Then you had the perfect storm where it was not just Greece ( which now has to be force fed the medicine), but also potentially Portugal, Ireland, Spain and perhaps maybe even Italy could be sucked into the default vortex . The impact on the banks in European is too horrifying to imagine. Meanwhile the European Central Bank , The International Monetary Fund both headed by French citizens go from meetings to meetings with the Finance Ministers, the Central Bankers and the Heads of State without reaching any decisions. In the meantime the investors in the markets continue to be whip-sawed .
In Britain the Economist magazine says the co-coalition government is looking leaky. The recent riots have left the social workers trying to figure out the cause of the riots. There is increasing talk about talking action against the social networks which fanned the flames. Again the double standards. When it is used in China, Middle East to fan the flames, loud voices of support are raised about freedom of speech, but now that the shoe is on the other foot, there is talk about how it can be controlled.
In the United States, with the forth coming elections both the Republicans and the Democrats continue to position themselves and every decision gets down to the wire to see who will blink first. The Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke in the meantime continues to tweak the economy to see if the green shoots will grow or will they wilt and will America catch the Japanese disease ?
On a relative basis, Australia , Latin America and Africa overall ( if you ignore the Arab countries) are the continents where it is pretty much business as usual. There are isolated countries where there are problems but nothing which could be considered contagious unlike what is happening in the areas mentioned above.
There is a Chinese proverb or curse depending on your interpretation " May you live in interesting times" . Certainly for all us who are Midnights Children, have had more than our share of " interesting times". Perhaps it is just a sign of my getting old, but I for one would like the excitement to slow down.
Starting with my own country India we have a well meaning Prime Minister who is the figure head with the real power being vested in the Head of the Congress Party. Perhaps of her recent illness,we are beginning to see the squabbles , first with the coalition partners and now increasingly within the party itself itself. It is no longer limited to junior ministers or party functionaries, but senior figures such as Pranab Mukherjee, PC Chidambran, and Kapil Sabil. You then have have the party mavericks such as Digivijay Singh and Mani Shankar Aiyar who emerge occasionally to make outrageous soundbites. You get the impression that people are beginning to position themselves for the next term and each trying to do their best to trip up the other.
Unfortunately things are not much better on the Opposition Bench.Under normal circumstances the term the Grand Old Man would apply to a senior figure such as LK Advani but unfortunately his behavior, his outbursts and his continued lust to be the next Prime Minister prevents you from giving him the sobriquet. You then have the other senior leaders such as Narinder Modi ( NaMo) , Sushma Swaraj , Arun Jaitely and others who are now being talked about as potential candidates , assuming of course that the Bharatiya Janata Party emerges with enough votes to be able to form a government . Perhaps the dark horse will be Nitish Kumar from Bihar who might emerge as the acceptable face for the BJP to rule even though he might be only a coalition partner.
In the meantime the country's growth rate has now slowed down to below 8%. The decision making has been paralyzed. Projects are getting delayed .
Pakistan on the other hand continues its games and finally even its closest ally the United States is beginning to say " enough is enough" . In the meantime the leaders both civilian and military continue with the threats to stop the support to the Nato allies in dealing with the Taliban and other terrorist outfits. The trump card which Pakistan holds is the nuclear arsenal.Instead of focusing on the economy the civilian military leaders are running to their all weather friends and allies.
In the Middle East, Israel is gradually getting isolated. The only prediction I will make is that if the Jasmine revolution continues as mentioned in my last blog " Back To The Future " , Beirut and not Dubai will in a few years regain its spot as the financial and fun capital of the Middle East as it was until the seventies.
Meanwhile across in Europe they continue to wring their hands about what to to about Greece ? The Greek sovereign bonds appear to be as radio active as the sub-prime bonds. Here again the banks bought the bonds for their higher yield without doing the due the diligence and relied on the rating agencies. What reinforced their faith to invest in these bonds was the fact that it was issued by a country in the Euro zone and that they would get bailed and they shoveled them into the wagons.. It was different from Iceland which had to bite the bullet and sort out its problems.
Then you had the perfect storm where it was not just Greece ( which now has to be force fed the medicine), but also potentially Portugal, Ireland, Spain and perhaps maybe even Italy could be sucked into the default vortex . The impact on the banks in European is too horrifying to imagine. Meanwhile the European Central Bank , The International Monetary Fund both headed by French citizens go from meetings to meetings with the Finance Ministers, the Central Bankers and the Heads of State without reaching any decisions. In the meantime the investors in the markets continue to be whip-sawed .
In Britain the Economist magazine says the co-coalition government is looking leaky. The recent riots have left the social workers trying to figure out the cause of the riots. There is increasing talk about talking action against the social networks which fanned the flames. Again the double standards. When it is used in China, Middle East to fan the flames, loud voices of support are raised about freedom of speech, but now that the shoe is on the other foot, there is talk about how it can be controlled.
In the United States, with the forth coming elections both the Republicans and the Democrats continue to position themselves and every decision gets down to the wire to see who will blink first. The Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke in the meantime continues to tweak the economy to see if the green shoots will grow or will they wilt and will America catch the Japanese disease ?
On a relative basis, Australia , Latin America and Africa overall ( if you ignore the Arab countries) are the continents where it is pretty much business as usual. There are isolated countries where there are problems but nothing which could be considered contagious unlike what is happening in the areas mentioned above.
There is a Chinese proverb or curse depending on your interpretation " May you live in interesting times" . Certainly for all us who are Midnights Children, have had more than our share of " interesting times". Perhaps it is just a sign of my getting old, but I for one would like the excitement to slow down.
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