Myanmar - Ready For Take Off !!!

Our family returned last week from a six day trip to Myanmar. For once we all agreed that it was one of the best holidays we have had. We went to Yangon, Bagan and Inle Lake. Based on what I have been reading , my observations and the conversations  ( albeit limited) I had  during our trip, I  feel that the country is ready to take off. If I was younger, I would have no hesitation in relocating to Yangon to start afresh.

First let me come clean on my Myanmar (or Burma) connection. My father moved there right after the war and started a business, getting the distribution franchise for international electronic, air- conditioners/refrigerating companies from Japan, India, Europe, UK and the United States. He did very well. While I was born in India, I was taken to Yangon while still a few months old. I spent a happy childhood  flying kites, playing marbles, shooting at birds with catapults. My friends were Indian, Chinese and Burmese. I went to a school run by lay American Methodist missionaries, which required us to attend chapel twice a week. We used to sing gospel and other American folk songs. Elvis Presley, Ricky Nelson and Cliff Richard were all the rage, as were drain pipes and puff hair dos with T-shirts  rolled up a'la Marlon Brando in the Water Front and James Dean. The Beatles were just getting popular. Surprisingly (now that I think about it) , the newspapers carried a lot of international news and one read about the anti colonial movements in Algeria, the murder of Patrice Lumumba in the Congo, and of course the assassination of President Kennedy.   

After the war Burma was one of the most prosperous countries in Asia. The first air-conditioned airport in Asia was in Rangoon in the sixties. I was told by a journalist friend that prior to the war, Burma was the most profitable branch for Mitsui worldwide. However in 1962, General Ne Win took over and announced that Burma was to go down the path of "The Burmese Road To Socialism ". In early 1964, the government announced that it was going to nationalize all private business regardless of who owned it. My father lost all his assets in that country. We moved back to India in the second quarter of that year.

After finishing my studies I ended up in Hong Kong working for Citibank. In nineteen eighty- one, soon after I joined the investment bank, a German colleague and I decided to visit Yangon to make a pitch for a sovereign loan, which was the hot product during those days. Upon our arrival, it seemed that we had gone back in time. While the rest of Asia was going through radical changes, in Burma time had stood still. Nothing had changed in the seventeen years since I had left. In fact things had deteriorated. I had no problem finding our old house and our neighbors. The Burmese central bankers came to pick us up in a pick up and we sat on the wooden benches in the back to go out for dinner. The hotel we stayed in The Inya Lake Hotel built by the Russians was in a terrible condition. There were cockroaches and an occasional rat. I caught an eye infection from the dirty towel in the bathroom. 

This time round however things were different. The airport was modern. The immigration officers were all well groomed, professional and efficient. All spoke English well. The airport was built four years ago, but due to the increased traffic, construction of a new airport is already under way. The roads leading to town were broad and clean. We did not come across any potholes during our entire stay. Sule Pagoda , the downtown area for Yangon had changed, though not completely. Some of the land marks were still recognizable. The building, where my father had his store and office, together with the adjoining building and two cinema theatre were all redeveloped to build the Traders hotel - managed by the Shangri-la hotel chain. All the two and three story wooden structures in our street have been re-developed into four to eight story apartment buildings. The only exception being our old house, a wooden structure almost a hundred years old. The upmarket residential area around Inya Lake would be on par or be considered better than most private residences in Lutyens Delhi.

India and Myanmar share a common colonial heritage .On a sad historical note, the last Indian Mughal emperor Bahadur Shah Zaffar was exiled to Yangon and is buried close the Shwe Dagon pagoda . In exchange the British exiled the last Burmese king Thibaw Ming to  Ratnagiri in Maharastra where he died and was buried. Because of the British overlords, Myanmar's civil service had more than its fair share of Indians. Also there was a large Indian population in most major towns and cities and in the rural areas. Growing up I remember my father's business and social acquaintances in addition to  the Burmese and Chinese, included Sikhs, Muslims, Marwaris, Guajaratis Bengalis, Tamils and Parsis. Our guide mentioned that in the old Burmese movies the doctors were always portrayed as turbaned Sikhs. 

 

From an external perception Myanmar is ranked among the poorest countries in South East Asia. However, in our limited travels the population we saw appeared to be reasonably fed and clothed. We were told that until last year the minimum price for a car (regardless of the make) was US Dollars One hundred and fifty thousand (unless you were well connected). Since then the duties have now been reduced to one hundred percent. The country has now been flooded with second hand cars, predominantly Japanese, with the exception of an occasional Benz or BMW. I was extremely impressed with the supermarket we visited. It would put most Indian supermarkets to shame in terms of the variety and quantity of goods. They were not cheap by any standards but people were busy shopping. Myanmar is probably the only South Eastern Asian country which is still cash based. Even the hotels will not accept credit cards, so it was surprising to see the prices of the goods. 

With the gradual lifting of sanctions, the influx of business and foreign visitors has shot up. Apparently last year there were only two hundred and fifty thousand visitors. As of early November this year, it was three hundred and fifty thousand and still counting and the peak tourist season was just starting. There are a limited number of hotels in Yangon and as such it is expected that prices will continue to rise in the short term.

With the new foreign investment laws now in the process of being implemented (with boys selling copies of the new investment law at traffic lights), you will see a flood of investors lead by the Japan.  Myanmar was the largest recipient of Japanese war damages and subsequently of aid. There has always been a historical affinity between the two countries in spite of the war.

I would expect in the medium to long term, Myanmar will over take the other South East Asian countries with the exception of Indonesia. Myanmar has a population of almost sixty million. It has a large variety of natural resources including oil and gas. It has rivers and mountains which are gradually being used to generate hydro-electricity. It was the largest exporter of rice and could quickly re-gain its pole position. Burmese teak is of course well know, as are Burmese rubies and jade, most of which over the last decades have been smuggled across to China and Thailand. It has unexploited beaches and hill stations, plus its rich cultural heritage. I was told that almost 95% of the population was literate (could read and write Burmese) - not because of the government, but thanks to the Buddhist monks who run schools in the monasteries. Most of the people we interacted with could speak and understand English, which puts it a step ahead of Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. 

For the last three to four decades, China (both state and private investors) have dominated foreign investors, together with other South Eastern investors, all working hand in glove with the rulers. The Chinese investments are however resented, as the general feeling is that Myanmar was being used as a raw material supplier to the Chinese industrial machine without a thought being given to the contribution of the welfare of the Burmese or the environment. 

Over the next few years you will see radical changes and a bonanza of opportunities in almost all the sectors, infrastructure, (ports, airports, roads, bridges, rails), financial (banks, finance companies, insurance companies, stock markets), technology, educational and medical institutions.  I could go on, but suffice to say that if I was younger, it would have been a second generation of the Bindra family relocating to Myanmar to seek his fortune.