Election By Sound Bites

Over the years I have been watching with fascination the election debates by American politicians. In the past the rulers were selected (or elected themselves ) by the size of their army or by winning battles - which showed their ability to strategize, lead, fight and win. Then as the world began to turn democratic, in most countries, the party which  wins the majority of seats in the parliament elect their own leader. In the the United States because of its unique electoral system,  while the majority of the states vote by party, it now becomes a game of wooing the small percentage of people classified as " undecided". Over the months as the election fever builds up, both party  candidates now funded by huge election war chests, supplemented by the Political Action Committees ( known as the Super PAC's) spend hundred of millions if not billions of dollars in slinging dirt and attacking each other. At times it gets extremely personal. The climax is in the form of the Presidential debates - the vice presidential debates are a side show and the warm up act.

The debates, especially the town hall format, where the debaters walk around,remind me of the World Wrestling Federation  wrestlers circling  each other and going through the jousting, which everyone knows is an act. At the end the candidates, joined by their families smile and  exchange some pleasantries to show that they are nice people. Deep inside both of them are probably  cursing  the sob for having caught you on the defensive.

After the debate the political pollsters, of which the United States has no shortage, supported  by the pundits and fact checkers highlight the sound bites, which  help "the undecided"make up their mind  as to which candidates misrepresented facts and  performed better overall.
 

The first  ground breaking debate between John F.Kennedy and Richard Milhous Nixon, helped Kennedy win. Apparently  Nixon lost because his  media advisers failed to tell  him what to wear, and because he did not put on make up, prior to the debate. The tanned, made up rich photogenic  playboy, war hero would probably have won without even uttering a word.This set the trend and for some debates there are memorable lines such as Lloyd Bensten put down of Dan Quale " Senator - you're no Jack Kennedy" or Ronald Regan's sly quip to Walter Mondale when questioned about his age  ( 73 vs Mondale's 56) " "I want you to know also I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience."

If you believe the media which most people do as you often hear " according to the New York Times" or " The Times of India " or "CNN says " elections have been won on the basis of sharp comebacks such as Regan's or by their  interpretation of body language. George Bush Sr. supposedly lost the chance for a second term because he looked at his watch during the debate. This apparently implied that he was uncomfortable.  Al Gore  lost the vote of " the undecided "because of his sighs and the rolling of his eyes implying his superiority or dismisal of George Bush Jr answers to the questions.

As a neutral observer I find it hard to accept that " the undecided " would make up their mind and vote for a particular candidate because he came up with a smart aleck  retort, or by his body language during the debate . To me it  is insulting . I would vote for a candidate based on his track record as a President ( if he is running  for re-election) or his other relevant experience if he up for the first time. After all running a country is much more complex than running a company no matter how large it is, yet we do not have debates between  a short list of candidates to be the Chief Executive of Citigroup or Coca Cola or Pfizer.

I have to use one of  Al Gore's quotes from the 1992 debate, to assume that a particular candidate won an election because of his track record rather than because he was quick on the comeback. “George Bush taking credit for the Berlin Wall coming down is like the rooster taking credit for the sunrise.”

The Beginning Of The End Of Alternative Energy ?

Call me a oil and gas bull, but the recent discovery and step up in exploration of shale reserves, the fields in Africa and the step up in the melting Arctic, oil and gas, in particular the latter, will continue to play a major role in energy consumption over the next hundred years. Will this be the death knell of alternative energy in the long run ?

The rise of the alternative energy was dependent on the increasing cost of oil due to depleting reserves. Also concern about climate change , but if prices had remained as they were in the sixties there would have been very little interest in alternative energy.  Predictions were made that the world was going to be running out energy. Alternative energy sources such as nuclear  energy, solar power, wind power and hydro electric power, were all being touted as the next big thing. Variations of these are wave based energy , offshore wind mills and the like , but they are unlikely to reach commercial production stages.

There have been numerous  nuclear accidents which have happened over the years. You can Google "nuclear energy accidents " and you will find a long list.The well known ones include the Washington Public Power Supply System in the United States, Chernobyl in the USSR, and Fukushima recently in Japan. Incidentally it was not the first time Fukushima had a problem.In 1978.also it some problems.  As a result of this both Germany and Japan , major producers of nuclear energy have decided to gradually close down all nuclear based power generation. India in the meantime appears to be the odd man out by continuing  to tout increased nuclear production.

Based on my limited knowledge of solar power, one of the problems of the solar panels appears to be  the efficiency rate and  the overall costs. While countries such as China and Germany have been subsidizing  solar generation,  to increase the volume of production of solar panels, the manufacturers are going through a rough time. In the meantime solar panel farms are being set up in deserts in many countries, but overall contribution to total energy remains extremely modest .

Wind power off course continues to considered as another alternative, but with strong winds needed and large areas required,these are likely to be in remote areas and grids and transmission lines built to be able to bring the power to urban areas.

Hydro-electricity generating stations are being built but to scale them to sufficient size, huge dams have to be built which leads  to the relocation of population and destruction of environment, as was the case during the Three Gorges project in China , probably the largest such attempt.

This is not to imply that oil and gas production is without environment risk. Traditional oil drilling including deep sea offshore production has been going on for decades and yes there have been accidents, but not on the scale or the consequences of a nuclear melt down in Chernobyl or Fukushima.

Also the long term consequences of new fracking technology use for shale production remains to be seen. There have been reports of it causing minor earthquakes. In addition the large use of water with the possibility of  pollution of water sources is obviously a major cause of concern.

However  with their deep pockets, their strong lobbying abilities and based on the decades of experience which the oil and gas industry has in resolving  problems in difficult terrains, such as Alaska, deep offshore production, sideways drilling, it is likely that they will find means and ways to overcome all of the major hurdles.

Having said all this, it is unlikely that the decline of the alternative energy will start happening next year or next five years, but more likely over the next couple of decades. I could be proven totally wrong and a major fracking accident on the scale of Fukushima could bring the industry to a halt, but if I were a betting man, I would not go short long term on the petroleum  industry.

 

The Corporatization of Religion - 2

In my blog of July 18th, I had written about trying to make the financial dealings of the religion institutions more transparent by incorporating  them. Because of  the wealth these institutions have accumulated over the centuries, there is a lot of misuse or abuse by the minders.

The Economist dated August 18th,2012   has a three page section on the financial mismanagement by the Catholic Church in the United States - the fourth largest in the world after Brazil,Mexico and the  Philippines. While it mentions the good which the Church does, including running 6,800 schools,630 hospitals and 244 colleges and universities,it describes how parishes have been closed, or declared bankrupt. It goes into details about how funds raised for specific purposes have been diverted to other uses, including defending the predatory priests, or for other purposes.

I am sure that the Catholic Church in the United States is not the only institution . As mentioned in my earlier blog, numerous religious institutions in other countries have been found equally guilty. The reason why the misdeeds of the Church have come to light is because of the openness of the American legal system. Now if the other countries were to follow the example I am sure that hundreds, if not thousands,of similar cases will emerge not just for the Catholic Church but other religious institutions as well.

 Interestingly enough the same article  mentioned that the Catholic Church is now resorting to the municipal bond market to raise funds. These issues are presently guaranteed by banks, so I assume that they have  had to reveal their financial affairs to the bank, but more likely they have probably provided some collateral to the institution.

So perhaps one can hope  that the next step will be the incorporation of these religious bodies. These will then make them more transparent and a lot of their  assets will be put to productive use.It is unlikely that this will happen, but there is nothing to stop you from dreaming.

Writing About Art

I was in Mumbai a couple of days ago. In between meetings I had some spare time and decided to stop by the Jehangir Gallery , one of  Mumbai's landmarks. A few years ago my daughter and I went there and bought something which bought of us liked,  at a fairly reasonable price. This time around there was another exhibition by an artist Piu Sarkar. While the paintings did not  interest me, the catalog describing the exhibition fascinated me.

I quote below sections of the write up by the artist as to what inspired her.

My images often results from a repetitive visual journey inside my mind as experienced in R.E.M and at times in lucid dreams -- flowing silently , involuntarily and in rhythm like a river which is choosing its own course till at some point when my soul feels deeply enwrapped and absolutely mesmerised as if by the tone of "a mystical music". It is only then I enter an "altered state of consciousness"; a state of non-ordinary mental space with zillion and million layers of an ever - engulfing "space-time"speed"tunnel which leads my being towards a brilliant yellowing-white light. It is only then I experience existing only in space without any awareness of measurement, time, object and forms around me. It is only then "the now"and eternity fuses into one experience. It is only then I experience "unconsciously conscious".

As in mythology ,it is around the tree of knowledge the cosmic women or Eve gained her first discovery of self-consciousness and hence became mortal. It is symbolic that before the cosmic woman thought to submit to a serpent's word or her own inner desire or the "the tree of knowledge:; unaware of guilt, shame, pain labour, agriculture and earthly death. I believe it it this state of ignorant initiation which enables our curios selves to invade , explore, play or experiment in order to learn and discover "a new path". In this phase of the  metamorphism of  self and  deeper aspects of soul live-relive only to once again resurface with a new vision , a new dream and a new will. 

Skipping a couple of paragraphs As an artist I'm not only trying to voice an idealistic utopian dream which beckons beyond our borders of conscious realities of everyday life but also questioning the very existence of our collective origin. ......

My paintings depict hidden-life depict hidden life-force in stones, meteors and asteroids as the are looking back at my viewers while telling them a story of another age;another planet and anther time which they have lived and still are by breathing as a soul or rather they are prehistoric echo in of fossils and remain from another age. Eyes in my paintings symbolise perception and sensitivity and in a way we all share a fine level of that invisible chain between plants, insects, animals, elements,stones and us......

Also included in the catalogue were comments by Keshav Malik and Pranabranjan Roy

The former ...Instead of relying on the fortuitous , the painting is given content by artistic values belonging to all times. Well,it is in some such way a good artist's work. Te traditional realistic manner, based on the observation of the changing appearances of nature,is felt to be inadequate.Means are thus sought to enhance the interpretation of inspirational idea.Distraction and superfluous accretions are eliminated.The main them having thus been isolated and set free from all accidental circumstances, it is given a new environment in which ideal spatial dimensions to replace those of nature, facilely apparent to the unaided eye........

The latter ...it must , however, be admitted that the painters like Piu Sarkar who get possessed by the idea and act of paintings - usually get to act under some  inner compulsion which tend to get manifested through the images they create.  Such compulsions , often, are more mental than cerebal or skilful. The cathartic expressions of mental compulsion that Piu's paintings are have their secrets encoded in the images and imageries of her painting. The decoding of the coded visuals offer the primary ground of engagement with Piu's work. .......    No less important is the composite  biomorhism of each image. Not only the icons of human females are mermaid- like, most images irrespective of their being primarily animate, are natural phenomenon and have features of other zoological entities,giving them the appearances of composite zoomorphic beings that are :phenomenologically, non-existent. Aquatic beings, amphibians and serpents of unknown species,especially, are the creatures of Piu's paintings come alive, through being endowed with strange zoomorphic dynamism......... The imaginary composite-species images, the biomorphic representation of all kinds of natural features , near total absence of representation of all man-made objects and the configuration of imagery evoking primordial landscapes, tend to suggest that Piu's imagination revolves round construction of personal mythology..........

All the above bring to mind my late teens, the late sixties and early seventies when one read about the  hallucinogenic drugs LSD, STP , Timothy Leary and books by a couple of authors Carlos Casteneda and Lobsang Rampa . Both of them talked about their experiences ( which were doubted later on), and their ability to see  hallucinogenic visions.

Carlos Castenada, describes his training in shamaism. From my memory of the books it describes the visual imagery he saw under the influence of peyote, a catcus flower which according to Wikipedia  is "Known for its psychoactive properties when ingested, peyote is used world wide as an"entheogen and supplement to various transcendence  practices, including meditation, psyconautics, and psychedelic psychotherapy . Peyote has a long history of ritualistic and medicinal use by indigenous Americans.

Lobsang Rampa - a British author who claimed to have been a Tibetian lama in his former life and he described his visions though his "third eye".

Then you had Timothy Leary , a Harvard professor who advocated the use of psychedelic drugs.

My naive appreciation of art ( painting or sculpture ) was that it was  something which is visually or technically appealing, which makes you look at a work twice or thrice or longer  and appreciating the skill and vision represented, without trying to get into the artist's head. Obviously I have a lot to learn. You have to be able to travel back into time or have the ability to travel intergalactically to be able to paint.

Not knowing very much about art and what inspires the artist, reading the catalog and  descriptions I now  have visions of the artist strung out  seeing zoomorphic and biomorpism images , while painting. If that is what it takes to paint then I can visualize Michelangelo straining his neck, totally strung out on the scaffolding while painting the Sistine Chapel. Similarly Leonardo under the influence which allowed him to paint Mona Lisa and be able to visualize the optical illusion of having her look at you no matter which angle you look at her from.

I obviously have a lot to learn and could never make it as art critic.



 

Let Us Corporatize Religion !!!

In my blog of April 19th The Church vs Mammon (see link below ), I had talked about the fraying  lines between the  church vs mammon. I have just received confirmation that the line has finally dissolved. I recently read a  news item about a Chinese Buddhist shrine Putuo, which also has a mountain resort , testing the waters for a Initial Public Offering of Dollars One Hundred and Eighteen million .

Around about the same time, news items started appearing about  The Institute for the Works of Religion (IOR) or The Vatican Bank as it is commonly known, trying to clear its name of involvement in money laundering. This is not the first time that the God's bank has been under a dark cloud. In the 1980's also there were similar rumors which supposedly lead to the the death of a senior Italian banker Roberto Calvi ,who reportedly committed suicide by hanging himself from a bridge in London.

This is not a isolated incident. Religious institutions from around the world  have been involved in questionable financial deals. The Bishops of  Holy and Great Monastery of Vatopedi  in Greece were implicated in a real estate scandal not too long ago.

There are numerous incidents of the Muslim Wakf  Boards in India (among the largest holders of real estate in India on behalf of charity) entering into  special deals with businessmen, real estate developers and politicians .According to the Tehelka magazine, in Karnataka state alone, about 20,000 acres out of a total of 54,000 acres of property  owned by the Karnataka Wakf Board  worth approximately forty billion dollars has been encroached upon . Even if it is one-tenth the estimated amount, it is quite substantial.  These are not isolated incidents. In almost every religion , there have been such scandals.

All this is not surprising.Religious institutions are among the largest holders of real estate and other forms of wealth, gold, precious stones or art, in almost every single country.This  results  from either purchases or gifts received from  the state or by donors over the centuries.The latest Economist magazine reports of efforts underway to compensate the church in the Czech Republic for properties sized when the communists came to power in 1948. Prior to that the church was the largest holder of real estate in the country.

As countries develop and prosper, the value of these properties appreciate.You will have conniving  administrators working closely with  businessmen and politicians, to find a way to dislodge the ownership,  especially since historical records of these properties tend to be fuzzy.

The Putuo shrine has  now opened the door for the religious institutions to become more transparent and maybe create liquidity in the market place.Considering the daily income received by the temples, mosques, churches, some creative investment bankers can perhaps securitize these income streams. The Tirupati temple in India, generates millions yearly  from the auction of hair trimmed  from pilgrims.Ten year bonds could be issued to build a school or a hospital , with the repayments coming  from income stream from these auctions. This is just a small revenue stream for the temple. 

Perhaps the Vatican can incorporate itself and become the biggest corporate in the world. Its entire holdings of art, treasures,property and other holdings  will  have to be disclosed and marked to market .It  will  also have to publish  yearly statements.It will have to clearly spell out how much is spent on charity and how much on defending priests accused of wrong doings.

This could be  a model for other religious institutions such as The Golden temple, Tirupati and other places of worship.Perhaps then the money will be put to good use,rather than lying in bank accounts or invested in gold bars, diamonds, or art lying in vaults.

 This is of course wishful thinking , because it  will then end the battle between the state and the church, with the latter being subjected to the judiciary if wrong doings are found ,whether by priests or the  lay administrators. The mystique of the church would then be removed and that  of course, is not going to be allowed to happen.

For the Investment Bankers, one word of caution, make sure that these deals do well, otherwise you run the risk of excommunication or being literally consigned to hell. 


TheChurch vs Mammon
 http://avib-randomthoughts.blogspot.in/2012/04/chuch-vs-mammon.html

It Is Not Impossible To Succeed In The Infrastructure Sector In India.

In my blog dated February 2011, I mentioned that I did not understand why funding infrastructure was such a problem in India ? Good projects with good sponsors should be able to do that.

Today I read an article in the Asian Wall Street Journal that CLP India Ltd a wholly owned subsidiary of a CLP Holdings Ltd, Hong Kong,  was thinking of listing its India operations. It started its operations in India in 2002 by acquiring  a majority stake in a 650 megawatt gas powered plant project in Gujarat, which it now owns one hundred percent. It also owns a 1,320 Megawatt coal based plant at Jhajjar in Haryana which should be fully operational soon. It runs wind farms totaling 500 MW and expects to raise the capacity by 44% by mid-2013 to 720 Megawatt. It is also looking at opportunities in solar power and other projects.

According to the article, the Chief Executive Rajiv Mishra, stated that "We operate at the lower end of the risk spectrum,” . “We are very conservative that way ". Historically it has raised debt mostly from multi-national lending agencies such as ADB, overseas commercial banks and the  rest of the funds from its own cash flows and from the parent. Selling shares and forming joint ventures for power projects will be a shift in the company’s strategy, according to Mr.Mishra

Now perhaps someone can explain to me why is it that a foreign company with no previous experience in India can very successfully  complete  projects totaling 2,470 Megawatts in different sectors in the space of ten years, without  making any  excuses about delay due to government approvals, or complaining about feedstock prices going up, asking for subsidized coal or the hundred of excuses which the Indian project sponsors continuously make for delaying their projects ? Do they have better political connections then any of the business houses. I would be surprised if Micheal Kadoorie , whose family controls the company, has ever met the Prime Minster, the Finance  Minister, or the Vice Chairman of The Planning Commission  - perhaps  I am wrong ? To the best of my knowledge , which is of course limited,  the only connection that Micheal  Kadoorie had  with India was through his grandfather - originally from Iraq  who first came to Bombay and then moved on to Shanghai where he made his fortune.

Having done deals for CLP during my banking days, I will be looking forward  to buying  their shares when they list locally. It will be the only  power infrastructure  stock  in my portfolio.

Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Terrorism Problem For India ?

Is the recent arrest of one of the mastermind of the 26/11 terrorist attack at Mumbai ,a signal that the terrorist movement against India is going to start declining ? It is wishful to think  that this will happen over night. However if you view the parties involved in apprehending the Abu Jundal , you have to  come to the conclusion that  the geopolitics of the  sub-continent are beginning to change. According to the news paper reports, it was cooperation between the Indian, the United States and the Saudi Arabian intelligence agencies which lead to the suspected terrorist  being arrested in Riyadh and put on a plane to Delhi. This in spite of the terrorist holding a Pakistani passport.

Would this have happened twelve to twenty four months ago ? The answer is unlikely. What has changed in the meantime? In my opinion the following broader changes have happened which lead to such cooperation.

1. Over the last twelve to eighteen months the squabble between Pakistan and the United States has gotten worse. The latter feels that the former refuses to play by the ground rules and it has reached the end of its patience.It is gradually stepping away from its main ally against its fight with the Taliban. It is openly courting India in every way not just as a sign of its displeasure with Pakistan, but as a potentially ally against China. It is also  encouraging India to play a more active role in Afghanistan.It would not have done that a few years ago for fear of incurring Pakistan's displeasure.

2. The Middle Eastern countries which are among the biggest supporters of Pakistan and among  its biggest financiers, are beginning to realize that the energy geopolitics are changing. The United States which used to be its biggest customer , is going to become a net exporter over the next few decades. This will  result in these countries searching for customers elsewhere. Europe is likely to continue to rely on Russia for its gas,and  if Poland starts exploiting its shale reserve, it will be a big supplier to the European Union market. That leaves China and India the other big and growing potential customers. While they have been buying from the Middle East, Iran has been one of the largest suppliers. Once Iraq and Libya and the other offshore fields in Africa step up their production, competition is going to get tougher.With the United States loosing its interest in the Middle East, the kingdoms there will have to find new friends. Unfortunately it is no longer a case of " my friend's enemy is my enemy ". National interest and self preservation comes first.Over the last few years countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have started re-building  the ties  which they have had historically with India and which had frayed until recently.

3. That leaves Pakistan with China its " all weather friend". It  will continue to support Pakistan - but up to a limit. If some of its ethnic provinces which have large Muslim populations  are infiltrated by the terrorist operating out the Pakistan , China will have to re-consider. Also China's trade with India and the potential to expand is many times more than that with Pakistan. The all weather friend might become a " fair weather friend"

4. Interestingly enough one of the Taliban web-sites actually congratulated India on not becoming a lackey of the United States and for being independent minded. Not quite sure  what to make of it, but  being an eternal optimist, I would take it as a positive sign and think that the Taliban is washing its hand off the Pakistan-India sixty year old squabble and saying we no longer  want to be  part of it.

 If all of  the above happens, the funding taps are going to be turned off, the safe havens of refuge are going to disappear. In today's world it is no longer enough to have passion for a cause and fight for it. You need to have the infrastructure to support the network and that requires not just the financial support, but also the nod and the wink of the authorities. For that to happen, there has to be a political angle or a financial angle.As they say in Hong Kong , no money, no talk.

On top of that Pakistan has its own internal problems both political and financial. On the political front you have the military, the politicians, and the judiciary all battling each other. Its finances are in a difficult situation.  The money pipelines are slowly being withdrawn.What then is the motivation for Pakistan to continue to wage a futile battle with India ? With nuclear weapons it is no longer a case of who wins? Both loose.Unless the leaders themselves together with  their families , are  prepared  to commit jihad , it does not make sense to continue with this effort.

The best way forward is for them to follow  the example of Nelson Mandela ,and Daw Aung Sung Sui Kyi to try and wipe the slate clean.The leaders need to press the restart button on  the pathway to prosperity for the entire sub-continent and re-claim the common culture and heritage.