Is the recent arrest of one of the mastermind of the 26/11 terrorist attack at Mumbai ,a signal that the terrorist movement against India is going to start declining ? It is wishful to think that this will happen over night. However if you view the parties involved in apprehending the Abu Jundal , you have to come to the conclusion that the geopolitics of the sub-continent are beginning to change. According to the news paper reports, it was cooperation between the Indian, the United States and the Saudi Arabian intelligence agencies which lead to the suspected terrorist being arrested in Riyadh and put on a plane to Delhi. This in spite of the terrorist holding a Pakistani passport.
Would this have happened twelve to twenty four months ago ? The answer is unlikely. What has changed in the meantime? In my opinion the following broader changes have happened which lead to such cooperation.
1. Over the last twelve to eighteen months the squabble between Pakistan and the United States has gotten worse. The latter feels that the former refuses to play by the ground rules and it has reached the end of its patience.It is gradually stepping away from its main ally against its fight with the Taliban. It is openly courting India in every way not just as a sign of its displeasure with Pakistan, but as a potentially ally against China. It is also encouraging India to play a more active role in Afghanistan.It would not have done that a few years ago for fear of incurring Pakistan's displeasure.
2. The Middle Eastern countries which are among the biggest supporters of Pakistan and among its biggest financiers, are beginning to realize that the energy geopolitics are changing. The United States which used to be its biggest customer , is going to become a net exporter over the next few decades. This will result in these countries searching for customers elsewhere. Europe is likely to continue to rely on Russia for its gas,and if Poland starts exploiting its shale reserve, it will be a big supplier to the European Union market. That leaves China and India the other big and growing potential customers. While they have been buying from the Middle East, Iran has been one of the largest suppliers. Once Iraq and Libya and the other offshore fields in Africa step up their production, competition is going to get tougher.With the United States loosing its interest in the Middle East, the kingdoms there will have to find new friends. Unfortunately it is no longer a case of " my friend's enemy is my enemy ". National interest and self preservation comes first.Over the last few years countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have started re-building the ties which they have had historically with India and which had frayed until recently.
3. That leaves Pakistan with China its " all weather friend". It will continue to support Pakistan - but up to a limit. If some of its ethnic provinces which have large Muslim populations are infiltrated by the terrorist operating out the Pakistan , China will have to re-consider. Also China's trade with India and the potential to expand is many times more than that with Pakistan. The all weather friend might become a " fair weather friend"
4. Interestingly enough one of the Taliban web-sites actually congratulated India on not becoming a lackey of the United States and for being independent minded. Not quite sure what to make of it, but being an eternal optimist, I would take it as a positive sign and think that the Taliban is washing its hand off the Pakistan-India sixty year old squabble and saying we no longer want to be part of it.
If all of the above happens, the funding taps are going to be turned off, the safe havens of refuge are going to disappear. In today's world it is no longer enough to have passion for a cause and fight for it. You need to have the infrastructure to support the network and that requires not just the financial support, but also the nod and the wink of the authorities. For that to happen, there has to be a political angle or a financial angle.As they say in Hong Kong , no money, no talk.
On top of that Pakistan has its own internal problems both political and financial. On the political front you have the military, the politicians, and the judiciary all battling each other. Its finances are in a difficult situation. The money pipelines are slowly being withdrawn.What then is the motivation for Pakistan to continue to wage a futile battle with India ? With nuclear weapons it is no longer a case of who wins? Both loose.Unless the leaders themselves together with their families , are prepared to commit jihad , it does not make sense to continue with this effort.
The best way forward is for them to follow the example of Nelson Mandela ,and Daw Aung Sung Sui Kyi to try and wipe the slate clean.The leaders need to press the restart button on the pathway to prosperity for the entire sub-continent and re-claim the common culture and heritage.
Would this have happened twelve to twenty four months ago ? The answer is unlikely. What has changed in the meantime? In my opinion the following broader changes have happened which lead to such cooperation.
1. Over the last twelve to eighteen months the squabble between Pakistan and the United States has gotten worse. The latter feels that the former refuses to play by the ground rules and it has reached the end of its patience.It is gradually stepping away from its main ally against its fight with the Taliban. It is openly courting India in every way not just as a sign of its displeasure with Pakistan, but as a potentially ally against China. It is also encouraging India to play a more active role in Afghanistan.It would not have done that a few years ago for fear of incurring Pakistan's displeasure.
2. The Middle Eastern countries which are among the biggest supporters of Pakistan and among its biggest financiers, are beginning to realize that the energy geopolitics are changing. The United States which used to be its biggest customer , is going to become a net exporter over the next few decades. This will result in these countries searching for customers elsewhere. Europe is likely to continue to rely on Russia for its gas,and if Poland starts exploiting its shale reserve, it will be a big supplier to the European Union market. That leaves China and India the other big and growing potential customers. While they have been buying from the Middle East, Iran has been one of the largest suppliers. Once Iraq and Libya and the other offshore fields in Africa step up their production, competition is going to get tougher.With the United States loosing its interest in the Middle East, the kingdoms there will have to find new friends. Unfortunately it is no longer a case of " my friend's enemy is my enemy ". National interest and self preservation comes first.Over the last few years countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have started re-building the ties which they have had historically with India and which had frayed until recently.
3. That leaves Pakistan with China its " all weather friend". It will continue to support Pakistan - but up to a limit. If some of its ethnic provinces which have large Muslim populations are infiltrated by the terrorist operating out the Pakistan , China will have to re-consider. Also China's trade with India and the potential to expand is many times more than that with Pakistan. The all weather friend might become a " fair weather friend"
4. Interestingly enough one of the Taliban web-sites actually congratulated India on not becoming a lackey of the United States and for being independent minded. Not quite sure what to make of it, but being an eternal optimist, I would take it as a positive sign and think that the Taliban is washing its hand off the Pakistan-India sixty year old squabble and saying we no longer want to be part of it.
If all of the above happens, the funding taps are going to be turned off, the safe havens of refuge are going to disappear. In today's world it is no longer enough to have passion for a cause and fight for it. You need to have the infrastructure to support the network and that requires not just the financial support, but also the nod and the wink of the authorities. For that to happen, there has to be a political angle or a financial angle.As they say in Hong Kong , no money, no talk.
On top of that Pakistan has its own internal problems both political and financial. On the political front you have the military, the politicians, and the judiciary all battling each other. Its finances are in a difficult situation. The money pipelines are slowly being withdrawn.What then is the motivation for Pakistan to continue to wage a futile battle with India ? With nuclear weapons it is no longer a case of who wins? Both loose.Unless the leaders themselves together with their families , are prepared to commit jihad , it does not make sense to continue with this effort.
The best way forward is for them to follow the example of Nelson Mandela ,and Daw Aung Sung Sui Kyi to try and wipe the slate clean.The leaders need to press the restart button on the pathway to prosperity for the entire sub-continent and re-claim the common culture and heritage.
Interesting, a significant move no doubt but the weight of evidence points to the US using its clout with the Saudis. Don't think energy politics is playing any significant role, the time when consumers such as India/China etc can play one supplier against another is far off. Recent developments in Poland where 90% of the potential shale gas has been knocked out of the reserves figure is a pointer at the everchanging landscape on that front. Pakistan's civilian(?) set up is also not averse to the army/ISI getting a bloody nose from time to time either.
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